Nov 15 Przewodow explosion

This case study is intended as a example of how there is great confusion in the direct aftermath of an event, and that the "direct aftermath" in the OSINT world doesn't start until things show up online

Analysis

Initially, the explosion was interpreted as an attack on Poland by Russia, and initial steps were taken to meet and discuss a potential invocation of NATO Article 4. While these steps were withdrawn, it's a good reminder that these kinds of interactions can easily spiral out of control.

Timeline

November 15

• At 15:40 local time (CET, GMT+1) an explosion was reported to national authorities in Przewodow
• Seemingly at 17:54 local time, public radio publishes its first news about the explosion, reporting two dead. Photos from the site of the explosions taken at 16:14 are also found at this site, possible already in the first update.
• At 18:28 local time, a journalist at the national commercial radio station Radio Zet tweeted the story that two missiles fell in Przewodow
• At 18:28 local time, Warsawa tabloid daily publishes a story that the national crisis group will convene, and vaguely references information that the meeting is related to the explosion in Przewodow. The story also states AP has reported that Russian missiles might have hit Poland.
• At 18:34 local time, public radio publishes a story that the national crisis group will convene, but no concrete cause is reported
• Seemingly at 18:42 local time, public radio publishes that the governor went to Przewodow.
• At 18:54 local time, a Radio Zet station published online a report from the site of the explosion. It was mostly second hand accounts, sourcing pictures from an online site covering actions by the fire fighers and a central quote from public radio . It also referenced "unofficial sources" stating that the explosion was caused by two stray missiles. It did not state the time of the explosion.
• At 19:04 local time, (norwegian?) twitter account Faytuks News highlights the Radio Zet story on his feed. At 19:13 local time the tweet is posted on the ACW slack
• At 19:43 local time, American journalist Jim La Porta references "a senior U.S. intelligence official" stating that there were two missiles and that they were Russian. It gets posted on the ACW slack at 19:44
• At 20:11 local time, American journalist Laura Kelly reports that the Pentagon cannot corroborate that two Russian missiles struck Przewodow. Journalist Idrees Ali reports the same thing at the same time, which is posted on the ACW slack at 20:20

By this point there is a speculation bonanza on twitter and on the slack, but then spoils things slightly around 3:00 local time

November 16

Timeline for "Russian made"

• At 00:04 local time (on the 16th) American journalist Phil Stewart reports that Polish MFA has stated that "Russian produced rocket fell on [...] Przewodow" at the time the explosion happened. It was posted on the ACW slack at 00:10 local time (on the 16th)
• At 00:15 local time (on the 16th) public radio published a report that the Polish MFA had issued a press release where the MFA described the explosion in Przewodow as being a "Russian made missile", and stated they had called the Russian ambassador to give an explanation.

Debbie downer timeline

• At 2:31 local time (on the 16th) Reuters posted a message on twitter stating that "No concrete evidence on who fired missile, Poland's Duda says". It was posted on the ACW slack at 2:41 local time (on the 16th).
• At around 2:50 local time (on the 16th) US president Biden has a short press conference where he says it is unlikely the missiles were fired from Russia. A youtube clip of the event is posted on the ACW slack at 3:04 local time (on the 16th)
• At 6:04 local time (on the 16th) american journalist Jon Gambrell reported on twitter that US government officials were saying it was a Ukrainian missile. This gets posted to the slack at 6:04 local time.

Timeline for Zelensky comments

• Around 19:12 local time, Zelensky stated "I have no doubt that it was not our missile or our missile strike. We have to participate in the investigation." However, both Ukraine and the US agree that ultimate responsibility for the explosion falls on Russia.