Difference between revisions of "Nov 15 Przewodow explosion"

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This case study is intended as a example of how there is great confusion in the direct aftermath of an event, and that the "direct aftermath" in the OSINT world doesn't start until things show up online
  
This case study is intended as a example of how there is great confusion in the direct aftermath of an event, and that the "direct aftermath" in the OSINT world doesn't start until things show up online
  +
  +
== Analysis ==
  +
Initially, the explosion was interpreted as an attack on Poland by Russia, and initial steps were taken to meet and discuss a potential invocation of [[NATO Article 4]].<ref>https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1592808775991246848?s=20&t=7xDcm3G_1-RoqLXCQEnvkg</ref> While these steps were withdrawn, it's a good reminder that these kinds of interactions can easily spiral out of control.
   
 
== Timeline ==
  
== Timeline ==
  +
  +
=== November 15 ===
 
* At 15:40 local time (CET, GMT+1) an explosion was reported to national authorities in Przewodow<ref>https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1592654792144584705</ref>
  
* At 15:40 local time (CET, GMT+1) an explosion was reported to national authorities in Przewodow<ref>https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1592654792144584705</ref>
 
* Seemingly at 17:54 local time, public radio publishes its first news about the explosion<ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/wybuch-ciagnika-w-miejscowosci-przewodow-nie-zyja-dwie-osoby/</ref>, reporting two dead. Photos from the site of the explosions taken at 16:14 are also found at this site, possible already in the first update.
  
* Seemingly at 17:54 local time, public radio publishes its first news about the explosion<ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/wybuch-ciagnika-w-miejscowosci-przewodow-nie-zyja-dwie-osoby/</ref>, reporting two dead. Photos from the site of the explosions taken at 16:14 are also found at this site, possible already in the first update.
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* Seemingly at 18:42 local time, public radio publishes<ref>https://archive.ph/vesrJ</ref> that the governor went to Przewodow.
  
* Seemingly at 18:42 local time, public radio publishes<ref>https://archive.ph/vesrJ</ref> that the governor went to Przewodow.
 
* At 18:54 local time, a Radio Zet station published online<ref>http://archive.today/2022.11.15-182649/https://wiadomosci.radiozet.pl/Polska/rakiety-spadly-na-polske-sa-ofiary-smiertelne</ref> a report from the site of the explosion. It was mostly second hand accounts, sourcing pictures from an online site covering actions by the fire fighers<ref>https://remiza.com.pl/wybuch-w-przewodowie/</ref> and a central quote from public radio <ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/wybuch-ciagnika-w-miejscowosci-przewodow-nie-zyja-dwie-osoby/</ref>. It also referenced "unofficial sources" stating that the explosion was caused by two stray missiles. It did not state the time of the explosion.
  
* At 18:54 local time, a Radio Zet station published online<ref>http://archive.today/2022.11.15-182649/https://wiadomosci.radiozet.pl/Polska/rakiety-spadly-na-polske-sa-ofiary-smiertelne</ref> a report from the site of the explosion. It was mostly second hand accounts, sourcing pictures from an online site covering actions by the fire fighers<ref>https://remiza.com.pl/wybuch-w-przewodowie/</ref> and a central quote from public radio <ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/wybuch-ciagnika-w-miejscowosci-przewodow-nie-zyja-dwie-osoby/</ref>. It also referenced "unofficial sources" stating that the explosion was caused by two stray missiles. It did not state the time of the explosion.
−
* At 19:04 local time, (norwegian?) twitter account Faytuks News highlights<ref>https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1592580008505401344</ref> the Radio Zet story on his feed. At 19:13 local time the tweet is posted on the ACW slack
+
* At 19:04 local time, (norwegian?) twitter account Faytuks News post a link<ref>https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1592580008505401344</ref> to the Radio Zet story on his feed. At 19:13 local time the tweet is posted on the ACW slack
  +
* At 19:41 local time, Latvian minister of defence posted a message<ref>https://twitter.com/Pabriks/status/1592588505393541122</ref> expressing condolences with the polish people and claiming the missiles were fired by Russia
 
* At 19:43 local time, American journalist Jim La Porta references<ref>http://archive.today/2022.11.15-201848/https://twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1592589217623789568</ref> "a senior U.S. intelligence official" stating that there were two missiles and that they were Russian. It gets posted on the ACW slack at 19:44
  
* At 19:43 local time, American journalist Jim La Porta references<ref>http://archive.today/2022.11.15-201848/https://twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1592589217623789568</ref> "a senior U.S. intelligence official" stating that there were two missiles and that they were Russian. It gets posted on the ACW slack at 19:44
 
* At 20:11 local time, American journalist Laura Kelly reports<ref>https://twitter.com/HelloLauraKelly/status/1592596264478470145</ref> that the Pentagon cannot corroborate that two Russian missiles struck Przewodow. Journalist Idrees Ali reports the same thing at the same time, which is posted on the ACW slack at 20:20
  
* At 20:11 local time, American journalist Laura Kelly reports<ref>https://twitter.com/HelloLauraKelly/status/1592596264478470145</ref> that the Pentagon cannot corroborate that two Russian missiles struck Przewodow. Journalist Idrees Ali reports the same thing at the same time, which is posted on the ACW slack at 20:20
  +
* At 20:46 local time, Slovakian minister of defence Jaroslav Naď posts a message<ref>https://twitter.com/JaroNad/status/1592605004149366784</ref> declaring that Russia must explain the events in Przewodow, stating that "Russian missiles" fell in Poland.
   
  +
=== November 16 ===
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By this point there is a speculation bonanza on twitter and on the slack, but then US president Biden spoils things slightly around 3:00 local time saying it is unlikely the missiles were fired from Russia. An at 6:04 local time US government officials are saying it was a Ukrainian missile. This gets posted to the slack at 6:04 local time.
  
   
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=== Timeline for "Russian made" ===
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===== Timeline for "Russian made" =====
−
* At 00:04 local time (on the 16th) american journalist Phil Stewart reports that Polish MFA has stated that "Russian produced rocket fell on [...] Przewodow" at the time the explosion happened. It was posted on the ACW slack at 00:10 local time (on the 16th)
 +
* At 00:04 local time (on the 16th) American journalist Phil Stewart reports that Polish MFA has stated that "Russian produced rocket fell on [...] Przewodow" at the time the explosion happened. It was posted on the ACW slack at 00:10 local time (on the 16th)
 
* At 00:15 local time (on the 16th) public radio published<ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/msz-na-terenie-przewodowa-spadl-spadl-pocisk-produkcji-rosyjskiej-ambasador-rosji-wezwany-do-msz/</ref> a report that the Polish MFA had issued a press release<ref>https://www.gov.pl/web/dyplomacja/komunikat-w-zwiazku-z-wezwaniem-ambasadora-federacji-rosyjskiej-do-msz</ref> where the MFA described the explosion in Przewodow as being a "Russian made missile", and stated they had called the Russian ambassador to give an explanation.
  
* At 00:15 local time (on the 16th) public radio published<ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/msz-na-terenie-przewodowa-spadl-spadl-pocisk-produkcji-rosyjskiej-ambasador-rosji-wezwany-do-msz/</ref> a report that the Polish MFA had issued a press release<ref>https://www.gov.pl/web/dyplomacja/komunikat-w-zwiazku-z-wezwaniem-ambasadora-federacji-rosyjskiej-do-msz</ref> where the MFA described the explosion in Przewodow as being a "Russian made missile", and stated they had called the Russian ambassador to give an explanation.
  +
  +
===== Debbie downer timeline =====
 
* At 2:31 local time (on the 16th) Reuters posted<ref>https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1592691774908252161</ref> a message on twitter stating that "No concrete evidence on who fired missile, Poland's Duda says". It was posted on the ACW slack at 2:41 local time (on the 16th).
  
* At 2:31 local time (on the 16th) Reuters posted<ref>https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1592691774908252161</ref> a message on twitter stating that "No concrete evidence on who fired missile, Poland's Duda says". It was posted on the ACW slack at 2:41 local time (on the 16th).
  +
* At around 2:50 local time (on the 16th) US president Biden has a short press conference where he says it is unlikely the missiles were fired from Russia. A youtube clip<ref>https://youtu.be/UydGg9ze1kA</ref> of the event is posted on the ACW slack at 3:04 local time (on the 16th)
  +
* At 6:04 local time (on the 16th) american journalist Jon Gambrell reported<ref>https://twitter.com/jongambrellap/status/1592745324199776257</ref> on twitter that US government officials were saying it was a Ukrainian missile. This gets posted to the slack at 6:04 local time (on the 16th).
  +
  +
===== Timeline for Zelensky comments =====
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  +
* Around 19:12 local time, Zelensky stated "I have no doubt that it was not our missile or our missile strike. We have to participate in the investigation."<ref>https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1592928556635471873</ref> However, both Ukraine and the US agree that ultimate responsibility for the explosion falls on Russia.<ref>https://twitter.com/vmsalama/status/1592932638230446081?s=20&t=EJHZ88AppH7WrxF25u8TAw</ref>
   
 
== References ==
  
== References ==
  +
<references />
  +
[[Category:Ukraine]]
  +
[[Category:Russo-Ukrainian War]]
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[[Category:Case Studies]]

Latest revision as of 22:09, 22 November 2022

This case study is intended as a example of how there is great confusion in the direct aftermath of an event, and that the "direct aftermath" in the OSINT world doesn't start until things show up online

Analysis

Initially, the explosion was interpreted as an attack on Poland by Russia, and initial steps were taken to meet and discuss a potential invocation of NATO Article 4.[1] While these steps were withdrawn, it's a good reminder that these kinds of interactions can easily spiral out of control.

Timeline

November 15

  • At 15:40 local time (CET, GMT+1) an explosion was reported to national authorities in Przewodow[2]
  • Seemingly at 17:54 local time, public radio publishes its first news about the explosion[3], reporting two dead. Photos from the site of the explosions taken at 16:14 are also found at this site, possible already in the first update.
  • At 18:28 local time, a journalist at the national commercial radio station Radio Zet tweeted[4] the story that two missiles fell in Przewodow
  • At 18:28 local time, Warsawa tabloid daily publishes a story[5] that the national crisis group will convene, and vaguely references information that the meeting is related to the explosion in Przewodow. The story also states AP has reported that Russian missiles might have hit Poland.
  • At 18:34 local time, public radio publishes[6] a story that the national crisis group will convene, but no concrete cause is reported
  • Seemingly at 18:42 local time, public radio publishes[7] that the governor went to Przewodow.
  • At 18:54 local time, a Radio Zet station published online[8] a report from the site of the explosion. It was mostly second hand accounts, sourcing pictures from an online site covering actions by the fire fighers[9] and a central quote from public radio [10]. It also referenced "unofficial sources" stating that the explosion was caused by two stray missiles. It did not state the time of the explosion.
  • At 19:04 local time, (norwegian?) twitter account Faytuks News post a link[11] to the Radio Zet story on his feed. At 19:13 local time the tweet is posted on the ACW slack
  • At 19:41 local time, Latvian minister of defence posted a message[12] expressing condolences with the polish people and claiming the missiles were fired by Russia
  • At 19:43 local time, American journalist Jim La Porta references[13] "a senior U.S. intelligence official" stating that there were two missiles and that they were Russian. It gets posted on the ACW slack at 19:44
  • At 20:11 local time, American journalist Laura Kelly reports[14] that the Pentagon cannot corroborate that two Russian missiles struck Przewodow. Journalist Idrees Ali reports the same thing at the same time, which is posted on the ACW slack at 20:20
  • At 20:46 local time, Slovakian minister of defence Jaroslav Naď posts a message[15] declaring that Russia must explain the events in Przewodow, stating that "Russian missiles" fell in Poland.

November 16

Timeline for "Russian made"
  • At 00:04 local time (on the 16th) American journalist Phil Stewart reports that Polish MFA has stated that "Russian produced rocket fell on [...] Przewodow" at the time the explosion happened. It was posted on the ACW slack at 00:10 local time (on the 16th)
  • At 00:15 local time (on the 16th) public radio published[16] a report that the Polish MFA had issued a press release[17] where the MFA described the explosion in Przewodow as being a "Russian made missile", and stated they had called the Russian ambassador to give an explanation.
Debbie downer timeline
  • At 2:31 local time (on the 16th) Reuters posted[18] a message on twitter stating that "No concrete evidence on who fired missile, Poland's Duda says". It was posted on the ACW slack at 2:41 local time (on the 16th).
  • At around 2:50 local time (on the 16th) US president Biden has a short press conference where he says it is unlikely the missiles were fired from Russia. A youtube clip[19] of the event is posted on the ACW slack at 3:04 local time (on the 16th)
  • At 6:04 local time (on the 16th) american journalist Jon Gambrell reported[20] on twitter that US government officials were saying it was a Ukrainian missile. This gets posted to the slack at 6:04 local time (on the 16th).
Timeline for Zelensky comments
  • Around 19:12 local time, Zelensky stated "I have no doubt that it was not our missile or our missile strike. We have to participate in the investigation."[21] However, both Ukraine and the US agree that ultimate responsibility for the explosion falls on Russia.[22]

References

  1. ↑ https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1592808775991246848?s=20&t=7xDcm3G_1-RoqLXCQEnvkg
  2. ↑ https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1592654792144584705
  3. ↑ https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/wybuch-ciagnika-w-miejscowosci-przewodow-nie-zyja-dwie-osoby/
  4. ↑ https://twitter.com/MariuszGierszew/status/1592570215443070976
  5. ↑ https://www.fakt.pl/polityka/premier-zwoluje-komitet-rady-ministrow-do-spraw-bezpieczenstwa-narodowego/3x8peeg?utm_source=www.fakt.pl_viasg_fakt&utm_medium=referal&utm_campaign=leo_automatic&srcc=ucs&utm_v=2#slide-1
  6. ↑ https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/premier-zwolal-w-trybie-pilnym-komitet-rady-ministrow-do-spraw-bezpieczenstwa-narodowego-i-spraw-obronnych/
  7. ↑ https://archive.ph/vesrJ
  8. ↑ http://archive.today/2022.11.15-182649/https://wiadomosci.radiozet.pl/Polska/rakiety-spadly-na-polske-sa-ofiary-smiertelne
  9. ↑ https://remiza.com.pl/wybuch-w-przewodowie/
  10. ↑ https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/wybuch-ciagnika-w-miejscowosci-przewodow-nie-zyja-dwie-osoby/
  11. ↑ https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1592580008505401344
  12. ↑ https://twitter.com/Pabriks/status/1592588505393541122
  13. ↑ http://archive.today/2022.11.15-201848/https://twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1592589217623789568
  14. ↑ https://twitter.com/HelloLauraKelly/status/1592596264478470145
  15. ↑ https://twitter.com/JaroNad/status/1592605004149366784
  16. ↑ https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/msz-na-terenie-przewodowa-spadl-spadl-pocisk-produkcji-rosyjskiej-ambasador-rosji-wezwany-do-msz/
  17. ↑ https://www.gov.pl/web/dyplomacja/komunikat-w-zwiazku-z-wezwaniem-ambasadora-federacji-rosyjskiej-do-msz
  18. ↑ https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1592691774908252161
  19. ↑ https://youtu.be/UydGg9ze1kA
  20. ↑ https://twitter.com/jongambrellap/status/1592745324199776257
  21. ↑ https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1592928556635471873
  22. ↑ https://twitter.com/vmsalama/status/1592932638230446081?s=20&t=EJHZ88AppH7WrxF25u8TAw
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