Nov 15 Przewodow explosion

This case study is intended as a example of how there is great confusion in the direct aftermath of an event, and that the "direct aftermath" in the OSINT world doesn't start until things show up online

Timeline

• At 15:40 local time (CET, GMT+1) an explosion was reported to national authorities in Przewodow
• Seemingly at 17:54 local time, public radio publishes its first news about the explosion, reporting two dead. Photos from the site of the explosions taken at 16:14 are also found at this site, possible already in the first update.
• At 18:28 local time, a journalist at the national commercial radio station Radio Zet tweeted the story that two missiles fell in Przewodow
• At 18:28 local time, Warsawa tabloid daily publishes a story that the national crisis group will convene, and vaguely references information that the meeting is related to the explosion in Przewodow. The story also states AP has reported that Russian missiles might have hit Poland.
• At 18:34 local time, public radio publishes a story that the national crisis group will convene, but no concrete cause is reported
• Seemingly at 18:42 local time, public radio publishes that the governor went to Przewodow.
• At 18:54 local time, a Radio Zet station published online a report from the site of the explosion. It was mostly second hand accounts, sourcing pictures from an online site covering actions by the fire fighers and a central quote from public radio . It also referenced "unofficial sources" stating that the explosion was caused by two stray missiles. It did not state the time of the explosion.
• At 19:04 local time, (norwegian?) twitter account Faytuks News highlights the Radio Zet story on his feed. At 19:13 local time the tweet is posted on the ACW slack
• At 19:43 local time, American journalist Jim La Porta references "a senior U.S. intelligence official" stating that there were two missiles and that they were Russian. It gets posted on the ACW slack at 19:44
• At 20:11 local time, American journalist Laura Kelly reports that the Pentagon cannot corroborate that two Russian missiles struck Przewodow. Journalist Idrees Ali reports the same thing at the same time, which is posted on the ACW slack at 20:20

By this point there is a speculation bonanza on twitter and on the slack, but then US presiden Biden spoils things slightly around 3:00 local time saying it is unlikely the missiles were fired from Russia. An at 6:04 local time US government officials are saying it was a Ukrainian missile. This gets posted to the slack at 6:04 local time.

• Some time before 23:13 local time the Polish MFA published a press release where they described the explosion in Przewodow as a being a "Russian made missile", and stated they had called the Russian ambassador to give an explanation.