Nov 15 Przewodow explosion - Revision history

Tobychev: /* November 15 */

2022-11-22T22:09:33Z

November 15

Tobychev: /* November 15 */

2022-11-22T21:58:24Z

November 15

Tobychev at 21:39, 16 November 2022

2022-11-16T21:39:03Z

Tobychev at 21:37, 16 November 2022

2022-11-16T21:37:47Z

Bmueller: Add analysis section

2022-11-16T21:34:01Z

Add analysis section

Bmueller: /* Timeline */

2022-11-16T21:28:29Z

Timeline

Bmueller at 21:22, 16 November 2022

2022-11-16T21:22:04Z

Bmueller: Add tags

2022-11-16T21:21:22Z

Add tags

Tobychev at 21:13, 16 November 2022

2022-11-16T21:13:12Z

Tobychev at 21:12, 16 November 2022

2022-11-16T21:12:42Z

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 * At 19:43 local time, American journalist Jim La Porta references<ref>http://archive.today/2022.11.15-201848/https://twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1592589217623789568</ref> "a senior U.S. intelligence official" stating that there were two missiles and that they were Russian. It gets posted on the ACW slack at 19:44
 * At 20:11 local time, American journalist  Laura Kelly reports<ref>https://twitter.com/HelloLauraKelly/status/1592596264478470145</ref> that the Pentagon cannot corroborate that two Russian missiles struck Przewodow. Journalist Idrees Ali reports the same thing at the same time, which is posted on the ACW slack at 20:20
 === November 16 ===

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 * Seemingly at 18:42 local time, public radio publishes<ref>https://archive.ph/vesrJ</ref> that the governor went to Przewodow.
 * At 18:54 local time, a Radio Zet station published online<ref>http://archive.today/2022.11.15-182649/https://wiadomosci.radiozet.pl/Polska/rakiety-spadly-na-polske-sa-ofiary-smiertelne</ref> a report from the site of the explosion. It was mostly second hand accounts, sourcing pictures from an online site covering actions by the fire fighers<ref>https://remiza.com.pl/wybuch-w-przewodowie/</ref> and a central quote from public radio <ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/wybuch-ciagnika-w-miejscowosci-przewodow-nie-zyja-dwie-osoby/</ref>. It also referenced "unofficial sources" stating that the explosion was caused by two stray missiles. It did not state the time of the explosion.
-* At 19:04 local time, (norwegian?) twitter account Faytuks News highlights<ref>https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1592580008505401344</ref> the Radio Zet story on his feed. At 19:13 local time the tweet is posted on the ACW slack
+* At 19:04 local time, (norwegian?) twitter account Faytuks News post a link<ref>https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1592580008505401344</ref> to the Radio Zet story on his feed. At 19:13 local time the tweet is posted on the ACW slack
 * At 19:43 local time, American journalist Jim La Porta references<ref>http://archive.today/2022.11.15-201848/https://twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1592589217623789568</ref> "a senior U.S. intelligence official" stating that there were two missiles and that they were Russian. It gets posted on the ACW slack at 19:44
 * At 20:11 local time, American journalist  Laura Kelly reports<ref>https://twitter.com/HelloLauraKelly/status/1592596264478470145</ref> that the Pentagon cannot corroborate that two Russian missiles struck Przewodow. Journalist Idrees Ali reports the same thing at the same time, which is posted on the ACW slack at 20:20

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 * At 19:43 local time, American journalist Jim La Porta references<ref>http://archive.today/2022.11.15-201848/https://twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1592589217623789568</ref> "a senior U.S. intelligence official" stating that there were two missiles and that they were Russian. It gets posted on the ACW slack at 19:44
 * At 20:11 local time, American journalist  Laura Kelly reports<ref>https://twitter.com/HelloLauraKelly/status/1592596264478470145</ref> that the Pentagon cannot corroborate that two Russian missiles struck Przewodow. Journalist Idrees Ali reports the same thing at the same time, which is posted on the ACW slack at 20:20
 === November 16 ===
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 * At 2:31 local time (on the 16th) Reuters posted<ref>https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1592691774908252161</ref> a message on twitter stating that "No concrete evidence on who fired missile, Poland's Duda says". It was posted on the ACW slack at 2:41 local time (on the 16th).
 * At around 2:50 local time (on the 16th) US president Biden has a short press conference where he says it is unlikely the missiles were fired from Russia. A youtube clip<ref>https://youtu.be/UydGg9ze1kA</ref> of the event is posted on the ACW slack at 3:04 local time (on the 16th)
-* At 6:04 local time (on the 16th) american journalist Jon Gambrell reported<ref>https://twitter.com/jongambrellap/status/1592745324199776257</ref> on twitter that US government officials were saying it was a Ukrainian missile. This gets posted to the slack at 6:04 local time.
+* At 6:04 local time (on the 16th) american journalist Jon Gambrell reported<ref>https://twitter.com/jongambrellap/status/1592745324199776257</ref> on twitter that US government officials were saying it was a Ukrainian missile. This gets posted to the slack at 6:04 local time (on the 16th).
 ===== Timeline for Zelensky comments =====

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 * At 20:11 local time, American journalist  Laura Kelly reports<ref>https://twitter.com/HelloLauraKelly/status/1592596264478470145</ref> that the Pentagon cannot corroborate that two Russian missiles struck Przewodow. Journalist Idrees Ali reports the same thing at the same time, which is posted on the ACW slack at 20:20
-By this point there is a speculation bonanza on twitter and on the slack, but then US president Biden spoils things slightly around 3:00 local time saying it is unlikely the missiles were fired from Russia. An at 6:04 local time US government officials are saying it was a Ukrainian missile. This gets posted to the slack at 6:04 local time.
+By this point there is a speculation bonanza on twitter and on the slack, but then spoils things slightly around 3:00 local time
 === November 16 ===
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 * At 00:04 local time (on the 16th) American journalist Phil Stewart reports that Polish MFA has stated that "Russian produced rocket fell on [...] Przewodow" at the time the explosion happened. It was posted on the ACW slack at 00:10 local time (on the 16th)
 * At 00:15 local time (on the 16th) public radio published<ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/msz-na-terenie-przewodowa-spadl-spadl-pocisk-produkcji-rosyjskiej-ambasador-rosji-wezwany-do-msz/</ref> a report that the Polish MFA had issued a press release<ref>https://www.gov.pl/web/dyplomacja/komunikat-w-zwiazku-z-wezwaniem-ambasadora-federacji-rosyjskiej-do-msz</ref> where the MFA described the explosion in Przewodow as being a "Russian made missile", and stated they had called the Russian ambassador to give an explanation.
 * At 2:31 local time (on the 16th) Reuters posted<ref>https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1592691774908252161</ref> a message on twitter stating that "No concrete evidence on who fired missile, Poland's Duda says". It was posted on the ACW slack at 2:41 local time (on the 16th).
 ===== Timeline for Zelensky comments =====

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:34, 16 November 2022
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	This case study is intended as a example of how there is great confusion in the direct aftermath of an event, and that the "direct aftermath" in the OSINT world doesn't start until things show up online		This case study is intended as a example of how there is great confusion in the direct aftermath of an event, and that the "direct aftermath" in the OSINT world doesn't start until things show up online
		+
		+	== Analysis ==
		+	Initially, the explosion was interpreted as an attack on Poland by Russia, and initial steps were taken to meet and discuss a potential invocation of [[NATO Article 4]].<ref>https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1592808775991246848?s=20&t=7xDcm3G_1-RoqLXCQEnvkg</ref> While these steps were withdrawn, it's a good reminder that these kinds of interactions can easily spiral out of control.

	== Timeline ==		== Timeline ==

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 [[Category:Ukraine]]
 [[Category:Russo-Ukrainian War]]
-[[Category:Case Study]]
+[[Category:Case Studies]]

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:21, 16 November 2022
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	== References ==		== References ==
		+	<references />
		+	[[Category:Ukraine]]
		+	[[Category:Russo-Ukrainian War]]
		+	[[Category:Case Study]]

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 By this point there is a speculation bonanza on twitter and on the slack, but then US president Biden spoils things slightly around 3:00 local time saying it is unlikely the missiles were fired from Russia. An at 6:04 local time US government officials are saying it was a Ukrainian missile. This gets posted to the slack at 6:04 local time.
-=== Timeline for "Russian made" ===
+===== Timeline for "Russian made" =====
 * At 00:04 local time (on the 16th) american journalist Phil Stewart reports that Polish MFA has stated that "Russian produced rocket fell on [...] Przewodow" at the time the explosion happened. It was posted on the ACW slack at 00:10 local time (on the 16th)
 * At 00:15 local time (on the 16th) public radio published<ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/msz-na-terenie-przewodowa-spadl-spadl-pocisk-produkcji-rosyjskiej-ambasador-rosji-wezwany-do-msz/</ref> a report that the Polish MFA had issued a press release<ref>https://www.gov.pl/web/dyplomacja/komunikat-w-zwiazku-z-wezwaniem-ambasadora-federacji-rosyjskiej-do-msz</ref> where the MFA described the explosion in Przewodow as being a "Russian made missile", and stated they had called the Russian ambassador to give an explanation.