Juchebird - Revision history

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Bmueller at 00:36, 17 January 2022

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"Juchebird", or sometimes "Juche Bird", is a hypothesized demonstration of <s>the awesome power of Juche</s> a North Korean ICBM deploying a functional nuclear warhead. Coined by Jeffrey Lewis from the American ''Frigate Bird'' test,<ref>https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/why-history-proves-north-korea-just-might-test-nuclear-22447</ref> such a successful demonstration would serve to disprove any doubts about the efficacy of the North Korean nuclear deterrent.

There's some precedent for this kind of behavior. In the 1960s, after the US repeatedly refused to acknowledge them as a nuclear power, China conducted its own nuclear demonstration.<ref>https://allthingsnuclear.org/gkulacki/red-guards-and-nuclear-missiles/</ref> While it's certainly unorthodox (and violates the [[Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty|international testing ban]]/norm against above-ground testing<ref>https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-next-north-korea-nuclear-crisis-kim-jong-un-tests-22197</ref>), it's pretty hard to believe that anyone would actually go to war with North Korea over a bunch of dead fish.

For now, it's somewhat unlikely that the Juchebird will make an appearance. But until American policymakers acknowledge North Korea as having a stable nuclear deterrent, the probability remains above zero.

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 "Juchebird", or sometimes "Juche Bird", is a hypothesized demonstration of <s>the awesome power of Juche</s> a North Korean ICBM deploying a functional nuclear warhead. Coined by Jeffrey Lewis from the American ''Frigate Bird'' test,<ref>https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/why-history-proves-north-korea-just-might-test-nuclear-22447</ref> such a successful demonstration would serve to disprove any doubts about the efficacy of the North Korean nuclear deterrent.
-There's some precedent for this kind of behavior. In the 1960s, after the US repeatedly refused to acknowledge them as a nuclear power, China conducted its own nuclear demonstration.<ref>https://allthingsnuclear.org/gkulacki/red-guards-and-nuclear-missiles/</ref> While it's certainly unorthodox (and violates the [[Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty|international testing ban]]/norm against above-ground testing<ref>https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-next-north-korea-nuclear-crisis-kim-jong-un-tests-22197</ref>), it's pretty hard to believe that anyone would actually go to war with North Korea over a bunch of dead fish.
+There's some precedent for this kind of behavior. In the 1960s, after the US repeatedly refused to acknowledge them as a nuclear power, China conducted its own nuclear demonstration.<ref>https://allthingsnuclear.org/gkulacki/red-guards-and-nuclear-missiles/</ref> While it's certainly unorthodox (and violates the [[Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty|international testing ban]]/norm against above-ground testing<ref>https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-next-north-korea-nuclear-crisis-kim-jong-un-tests-22197</ref>), it's pretty hard to believe that anyone would actually go to war with North Korea over a bunch of dead fish. Even so, the consequences may be hard to measure but they certainly exist.<ref>https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1204233/guest-post-consequences-of-testing-an-h-bomb-in-the-pacific/</ref>
 For now, it's somewhat unlikely that the Juchebird will make an appearance. But until American policymakers acknowledge North Korea as having a stable nuclear deterrent, the probability remains above zero.