https://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/api.php?action=feedcontributions&feedformat=atom&user=TobychevWonkpedia - User contributions [en]2026-04-09T12:39:19ZUser contributionsMediaWiki 1.35.13https://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Missile&diff=2503Missile2022-11-29T02:17:19Z<p>Tobychev: /* Resources */</p>
<hr />
<div>The term missile has trough recent history been applied to ha very broad set of weapons, and so does not actually have one fix meaning. <br />
<br />
<br />
== Definition ==<br />
On this wiki, the term is most likely to be short for "missile system" in the spirit of Wilson and Dunham 2020<ref>https://csps.aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Wilson-Dunham_MissileThreat_20200826_0.pdf</ref>:<br />
<br />
* A missile system consists of a rocket and (at least) a weaponized payload that flies trough the air <br />
<br />
The rocket is commonly called a "booster", while the weaponised payload is sometimes said to carry "munitions". <br />
<br />
Note that the "(at least)" bit implies there can be more parts to a missile than just the rocket motor and the warhead, this is primarily intended to capture the important class of "cruise missiles" that fly a long part of their trajectory powered by a "sustainer" part and not by the rocket part.<br />
<br />
Within this definition you can find a wide variety of what is to be considered a missile, and also a large variety of [[missile classifications]]. Here we will mostly discuss larger and longer range missiles.<br />
<br />
There is however a risk that "missile" refers to "Air launched cruise missile", weapons which by virtue of being launched from the air commonly do not need the booster. <br />
<br />
== History == <br />
The history of the missile relevant in the arms control sense starts with the German V2 missile, which was ballistic missile and as such not very accurate. However, being inaccurate is ok if you can make a really big boom at the end, and thus after World war 2 ballistic missiles were at first mostly used to deliver nuclear weapons.<br />
<br />
== Resources ==<br />
Markus Schiller provides a [https://www.iiss.org/blogs/research-paper/2022/04/missile-identification-and-assessment short] introduction to (large) ballistic missiles, covering basics on rocketry and propulsions, as well as a section on how to estimate missile properties from open sources.<br />
<br />
The fabled 2003 [https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.76.S1 APS ballistic missile defence report], to this day (mid 2022) the most comprehensive public report on all things missile defence (most newer stuff simply references this for any quantitative results, and then waves their hands about and declare this a "novel contribution")<br />
<br />
The [https://csps.aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Wilson-Dunham_MissileThreat_20200826_0.pdf Wilson and Dunham] paper suggesting a new way to classify missiles. Also provides some discussion on why we have the range classes we have.<br />
<br />
A collection of books, some about missile design can be found on [https://ftp.idu.ac.id/wp-content/uploads/ebook/tdg/MILITARY%20PLATFORM%20DESIGN/ this] public site.<br />
<br />
== Todo ==<br />
this page should be a short summary of missiles as it relates to arms control, with a short history (not a full history, that will be on the history page) of Von Braun and the V2, arms control treaties concerning missiles, then what systems are actively deployed/by whom, finally the future of missiles and how they relate to arms control<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<br />
[[Category:Missiles]]</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=The_breakingcraft_list&diff=2502The breakingcraft list2022-11-29T01:37:49Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>This [https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jm7DXVbkU5IIVpxmorgAB1m4LEfTJkCo/view?usp=sharing list] is provided by [https://mobile.twitter.com/breakingcraft_ @breakingcraft_@twitter.com]<br />
<br />
== Construction == <br />
The list has been developing since 2011, <br />
<br />
It's my own file that I have made since 2011, but I remade it this spring into the same format as archer83able does per military district and per branch of armed forces.<br />
(Before that, it was just chaos that not even I understood..)<br />
But I add a lot more info about units than archer83able. Only the part of active military sites in mine is 3-4 times as large as his, and that is without the folder/tab that contains inactive military units for exclusion. But Im going to try to start to add where and when I get the info from, I have been terrible bad with that...I cross reference sites with:<br />
<br />
wikimapia.kml https://wikimapia.org/ge.kml <br />
<br />
Manually checking on https://ru.eesosedi.org/ (dont seem to work anymore? Was a good bad-opsec resource because all the people that were based as the millitary units wrote in the comments on their experience and what they did do at the places, people does that on wikimapia too but not as much as on eesosedi)<br />
<br />
OpenStreetMap Overpass-turbo query exports <br />
<br />
But its basically an amalgamation of:Worldwide SAM Site Overview.kmz 2012 from http://geimint.blogspot.com/ from Professor Sean O'Connor that has done stuff for IHS Jane´s.ICBM silos sites + nuclear production sites from (the category that I started with but its the one that needs most TL&C for the moment as its to messy with both inactive and active facilities mixed in eatchotters):<br />
<br />
east-west ICBM balance 60-70.kmz<br />
Russian ICBM.kmz<br />
515445-SovietICBMasperSTART1.kmz<br />
Russia's nuclear complex.kmz<br />
ModelNewSTARTData1Sep2012.kmz<br />
Soviet and Russian Nuclear Weapons Complexes.kmz<br />
Soviet-Russian Nuclear-Chemical Weapons Facilities.kmz<br />
<br />
Airbases / planes range rings from:<br />
Russia's Air-Launched NSNW Posture.kmz<br />
https://cepa.ecms.pl/files/?id_plik=4597SIGINT sites, space surveillance , HFDF sites,<br />
GRU-SIGINT sites, OTH-radars from:<br />
<br />
KRUG-FIX24-THICK8-CDAA-0701512.kmz<br />
Soviet HFDF-Missile&amp;%09Space Tracking06-21-10.kmz<br />
NIP.kmz<br />
R-7a.kmz<br />
Soviet MIssile &amp;%09Space Tracking Sites 73110.kmz<br />
Storozhevaya and Nakhodka KRONA complexes.kmz<br />
ROCICO Krona, Krona-N.kmz<br />
Russian early warning radars Jan 2013.kmz<br />
948132-RussiaVLFstations.kmz<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
[[Category:Russia]]</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=The_breakingcraft_list&diff=2501The breakingcraft list2022-11-28T23:28:21Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>This [https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jm7DXVbkU5IIVpxmorgAB1m4LEfTJkCo/view?usp=sharing list] is provided by [https://mobile.twitter.com/breakingcraft_ @breakingcraft_@twitter.com]<br />
<br />
== Sourcing == <br />
It's my own file that I have made since 2011, but I remade it this spring into the same format as archer83able does per military district and per branch of armed forces.<br />
(Before that, it was just chaos that not even I understood..)<br />
But I add a lot more info about units than archer83able. Only the part of active military sites in mine is 3-4 times as large as his, and that is without the folder/tab that contains inactive military units for exclusion. But Im going to try to start to add where and when I get the info from, I have been terrible bad with that...I cross reference sites with:<br />
<br />
wikimapia.kml https://wikimapia.org/ge.kml <br />
<br />
Manually checking on https://ru.eesosedi.org/ (dont seem to work anymore? Was a good bad-opsec resource because all the people that were based as the millitary units wrote in the comments on their experience and what they did do at the places, people does that on wikimapia too but not as much as on eesosedi)<br />
<br />
OpenStreetMap Overpass-turbo query exports <br />
<br />
But its basically an amalgamation of:Worldwide SAM Site Overview.kmz 2012 from http://geimint.blogspot.com/ from Professor Sean O'Connor that has done stuff for IHS Jane´s.ICBM silos sites + nuclear production sites from (the category that I started with but its the one that needs most TL&C for the moment as its to messy with both inactive and active facilities mixed in eatchotters):<br />
<br />
east-west ICBM balance 60-70.kmz<br />
Russian ICBM.kmz<br />
515445-SovietICBMasperSTART1.kmz<br />
Russia's nuclear complex.kmz<br />
ModelNewSTARTData1Sep2012.kmz<br />
Soviet and Russian Nuclear Weapons Complexes.kmz<br />
Soviet-Russian Nuclear-Chemical Weapons Facilities.kmz<br />
<br />
Airbases / planes range rings from:<br />
Russia's Air-Launched NSNW Posture.kmz<br />
https://cepa.ecms.pl/files/?id_plik=4597SIGINT sites, space surveillance , HFDF sites,<br />
GRU-SIGINT sites, OTH-radars from:<br />
<br />
KRUG-FIX24-THICK8-CDAA-0701512.kmz<br />
Soviet HFDF-Missile&amp;%09Space Tracking06-21-10.kmz<br />
NIP.kmz<br />
R-7a.kmz<br />
Soviet MIssile &amp;%09Space Tracking Sites 73110.kmz<br />
Storozhevaya and Nakhodka KRONA complexes.kmz<br />
ROCICO Krona, Krona-N.kmz<br />
Russian early warning radars Jan 2013.kmz<br />
948132-RussiaVLFstations.kmz</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=The_breakingcraft_list&diff=2500The breakingcraft list2022-11-28T23:09:09Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>This list is provided by [https://mobile.twitter.com/breakingcraft_ @breakingcraft_@twitter.com]<br />
<br />
== Sourcing == <br />
It's my own file that I have made since 2011, but I remade it this spring into the same format as archer83able does per military district and per branch of armed forces.<br />
(Before that, it was just chaos that not even I understood..)<br />
But I add a lot more info about units than archer83able. Only the part of active military sites in mine is 3-4 times as large as his, and that is without the folder/tab that contains inactive military units for exclusion. But Im going to try to start to add where and when I get the info from, I have been terrible bad with that...I cross reference sites with:<br />
<br />
wikimapia.kml https://wikimapia.org/ge.kml <br />
<br />
Manually checking on https://ru.eesosedi.org/ (dont seem to work anymore? Was a good bad-opsec resource because all the people that were based as the millitary units wrote in the comments on their experience and what they did do at the places, people does that on wikimapia too but not as much as on eesosedi)<br />
<br />
OpenStreetMap Overpass-turbo query exports <br />
<br />
But its basically an amalgamation of:Worldwide SAM Site Overview.kmz 2012 from http://geimint.blogspot.com/ from Professor Sean O'Connor that has done stuff for IHS Jane´s.ICBM silos sites + nuclear production sites from (the category that I started with but its the one that needs most TL&C for the moment as its to messy with both inactive and active facilities mixed in eatchotters):<br />
<br />
east-west ICBM balance 60-70.kmz<br />
Russian ICBM.kmz<br />
515445-SovietICBMasperSTART1.kmz<br />
Russia's nuclear complex.kmz<br />
ModelNewSTARTData1Sep2012.kmz<br />
Soviet and Russian Nuclear Weapons Complexes.kmz<br />
Soviet-Russian Nuclear-Chemical Weapons Facilities.kmz<br />
<br />
Airbases / planes range rings from:<br />
Russia's Air-Launched NSNW Posture.kmz<br />
https://cepa.ecms.pl/files/?id_plik=4597SIGINT sites, space surveillance , HFDF sites,<br />
GRU-SIGINT sites, OTH-radars from:<br />
<br />
KRUG-FIX24-THICK8-CDAA-0701512.kmz<br />
Soviet HFDF-Missile&amp;%09Space Tracking06-21-10.kmz<br />
NIP.kmz<br />
R-7a.kmz<br />
Soviet MIssile &amp;%09Space Tracking Sites 73110.kmz<br />
Storozhevaya and Nakhodka KRONA complexes.kmz<br />
ROCICO Krona, Krona-N.kmz<br />
Russian early warning radars Jan 2013.kmz<br />
948132-RussiaVLFstations.kmz</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=The_breakingcraft_list&diff=2499The breakingcraft list2022-11-28T23:08:59Z<p>Tobychev: Created page with "This list is provided by https://mobile.twitter.com/breakingcraft_ @breakingcraft_@twitter.com == Sourcing == It's my own file that I have made since 2011, but I remade..."</p>
<hr />
<div>This list is provided by [[https://mobile.twitter.com/breakingcraft_ @breakingcraft_@twitter.com]]<br />
<br />
== Sourcing == <br />
It's my own file that I have made since 2011, but I remade it this spring into the same format as archer83able does per military district and per branch of armed forces.<br />
(Before that, it was just chaos that not even I understood..)<br />
But I add a lot more info about units than archer83able. Only the part of active military sites in mine is 3-4 times as large as his, and that is without the folder/tab that contains inactive military units for exclusion. But Im going to try to start to add where and when I get the info from, I have been terrible bad with that...I cross reference sites with:<br />
<br />
wikimapia.kml https://wikimapia.org/ge.kml <br />
<br />
Manually checking on https://ru.eesosedi.org/ (dont seem to work anymore? Was a good bad-opsec resource because all the people that were based as the millitary units wrote in the comments on their experience and what they did do at the places, people does that on wikimapia too but not as much as on eesosedi)<br />
<br />
OpenStreetMap Overpass-turbo query exports <br />
<br />
But its basically an amalgamation of:Worldwide SAM Site Overview.kmz 2012 from http://geimint.blogspot.com/ from Professor Sean O'Connor that has done stuff for IHS Jane´s.ICBM silos sites + nuclear production sites from (the category that I started with but its the one that needs most TL&C for the moment as its to messy with both inactive and active facilities mixed in eatchotters):<br />
<br />
east-west ICBM balance 60-70.kmz<br />
Russian ICBM.kmz<br />
515445-SovietICBMasperSTART1.kmz<br />
Russia's nuclear complex.kmz<br />
ModelNewSTARTData1Sep2012.kmz<br />
Soviet and Russian Nuclear Weapons Complexes.kmz<br />
Soviet-Russian Nuclear-Chemical Weapons Facilities.kmz<br />
<br />
Airbases / planes range rings from:<br />
Russia's Air-Launched NSNW Posture.kmz<br />
https://cepa.ecms.pl/files/?id_plik=4597SIGINT sites, space surveillance , HFDF sites,<br />
GRU-SIGINT sites, OTH-radars from:<br />
<br />
KRUG-FIX24-THICK8-CDAA-0701512.kmz<br />
Soviet HFDF-Missile&amp;%09Space Tracking06-21-10.kmz<br />
NIP.kmz<br />
R-7a.kmz<br />
Soviet MIssile &amp;%09Space Tracking Sites 73110.kmz<br />
Storozhevaya and Nakhodka KRONA complexes.kmz<br />
ROCICO Krona, Krona-N.kmz<br />
Russian early warning radars Jan 2013.kmz<br />
948132-RussiaVLFstations.kmz</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Russia&diff=2498Russia2022-11-28T23:07:34Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>== Missile Program ==<br />
Russia has historically developed very many missile, so, *so* many. See the CSIS missile [https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/russia/ threat page] for Russia for some examples.<br />
<br />
=== Yuzhny Island ===<br />
{{Main|Novaya Zemlya}}<br />
<br />
=== Missiles under development ===<br />
{{Main|Sarmat}}<br />
The RS-28 Sarmat is a liquid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile currently under development by Russia.<ref>https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/rs-28-sarmat/</ref><br />
<br />
== Nuclear Program ==<br />
Link to individual things or maybe individual sites here.<br />
<br />
== The big list of military sites ==<br />
[[The breakingcraft list]]<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<references /><br />
[[Category:Russia]]</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Classifying_military_actions&diff=2497Classifying military actions2022-11-27T17:11:11Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>A high level classification of military actions could start with distinguishing between ''conquering'' and ''raiding'', defined as such<br />
<br />
; Conquering<br />
::- using military violence to obtain enduring control over an area of land<br />
; Raiding<br />
::- using military violence or other means to obtain access to an area of land, and perform transient military activities there</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Classifying_military_actions&diff=2496Classifying military actions2022-11-27T17:10:31Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>A high level classification of military actions could start with distinguishing between ''conquering'' and ''raiding'', defined as such<br />
<br />
* Conquering<br />
::- using military violence to obtain enduring control over an area of land<br />
* Raiding<br />
::- using military violence or other means to obtain access to an area of land, and perform transient military activities there</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Classifying_military_actions&diff=2495Classifying military actions2022-11-27T17:09:21Z<p>Tobychev: Created page with "A high level classification of military actions could start with distinguishing between ''conquering'' and ''raiding'', defined as such * Conquering: using military violence..."</p>
<hr />
<div>A high level classification of military actions could start with distinguishing between ''conquering'' and ''raiding'', defined as such<br />
<br />
* Conquering: using military violence to obtain enduring control over an area of land<br />
* Raiding: using military violence or other means to obtain access to an area of land, and perform transient military activities there</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=User:Tobychev&diff=2494User:Tobychev2022-11-27T17:06:46Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>[[Classifying military actions]]</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=User:Tobychev&diff=2493User:Tobychev2022-11-27T17:05:45Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>[[Defining military actions]]</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=User:Tobychev&diff=2492User:Tobychev2022-11-27T17:05:30Z<p>Tobychev: Created page with " [Defining military actions]"</p>
<hr />
<div> [Defining military actions]</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Missile&diff=2491Missile2022-11-27T17:02:32Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>The term missile has trough recent history been applied to ha very broad set of weapons, and so does not actually have one fix meaning. <br />
<br />
<br />
== Definition ==<br />
On this wiki, the term is most likely to be short for "missile system" in the spirit of Wilson and Dunham 2020<ref>https://csps.aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Wilson-Dunham_MissileThreat_20200826_0.pdf</ref>:<br />
<br />
* A missile system consists of a rocket and (at least) a weaponized payload that flies trough the air <br />
<br />
The rocket is commonly called a "booster", while the weaponised payload is sometimes said to carry "munitions". <br />
<br />
Note that the "(at least)" bit implies there can be more parts to a missile than just the rocket motor and the warhead, this is primarily intended to capture the important class of "cruise missiles" that fly a long part of their trajectory powered by a "sustainer" part and not by the rocket part.<br />
<br />
Within this definition you can find a wide variety of what is to be considered a missile, and also a large variety of [[missile classifications]]. Here we will mostly discuss larger and longer range missiles.<br />
<br />
There is however a risk that "missile" refers to "Air launched cruise missile", weapons which by virtue of being launched from the air commonly do not need the booster. <br />
<br />
== History == <br />
The history of the missile relevant in the arms control sense starts with the German V2 missile, which was ballistic missile and as such not very accurate. However, being inaccurate is ok if you can make a really big boom at the end, and thus after World war 2 ballistic missiles were at first mostly used to deliver nuclear weapons.<br />
<br />
== Resources ==<br />
Markus Schiller provides a [https://www.iiss.org/blogs/research-paper/2022/04/missile-identification-and-assessment short] introduction to (large) ballistic missiles, covering basics on rocketry and propulsions, as well as a section on how to estimate missile properties from open sources.<br />
<br />
The fabled 2003 [https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.76.S1 APS ballistic missile defence report], to this day (mid 2022) the most comprehensive public report on all things missile defence (most newer stuff simply references this for any quantitative results, and then waves their hands about and declare this a "novel contribution")<br />
<br />
The [https://csps.aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Wilson-Dunham_MissileThreat_20200826_0.pdf Wilson and Dunham] paper suggesting a new way to classify missiles. Also provides some discussion on why we have the range classes we have.<br />
<br />
== Todo ==<br />
this page should be a short summary of missiles as it relates to arms control, with a short history (not a full history, that will be on the history page) of Von Braun and the V2, arms control treaties concerning missiles, then what systems are actively deployed/by whom, finally the future of missiles and how they relate to arms control<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<br />
[[Category:Missiles]]</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Missile&diff=2490Missile2022-11-27T16:59:11Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>The term missile has trough recent history been applied to ha very broad set of weapons, and so does not actually have one fix meaning. <br />
<br />
<br />
== Definition ==<br />
On this wiki, the term is most likely to be short for "missile system" in the spirit of Wilson and Dunham 2020<ref>https://csps.aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Wilson-Dunham_MissileThreat_20200826_0.pdf</ref>:<br />
<br />
* A missile system consists of a rocket and (at least) a weaponized payload that flies trough the air <br />
<br />
The rocket is commonly called a "booster", while the weaponised payload is sometimes said to carry "munitions". <br />
<br />
Note that the "(at least)" bit implies there can be more parts to a missile than just the rocket motor and the warhead, this is primarily intended to capture the important class of "cruise missiles" that fly a long part of their trajectory powered by a "sustainer" part and not by the rocket part.<br />
<br />
Within this definition you can find a wide variety of what is to be considered a missile, and also a large variety of [[missile classifications]]. Here we will mostly discuss larger and longer range missiles.<br />
<br />
There is however a risk that "missile" refers to "Air launched cruise missile", weapons which by virtue of being launched from the air commonly does not need the booster. <br />
<br />
== History == <br />
The history of the missile relevant in the arms control sense starts with the German V2 missile, which was ballistic missile and as such not very accurate. However, being inaccurate is ok if you can make a really big boom at the end, and thus after World war 2 ballistic missiles were at first mostly used to deliver nuclear weapons.<br />
<br />
== Resources ==<br />
Markus Schiller provides a [https://www.iiss.org/blogs/research-paper/2022/04/missile-identification-and-assessment short] introduction to (large) ballistic missiles, covering basics on rocketry and propulsions, as well as a section on how to estimate missile properties from open sources.<br />
<br />
The fabled 2003 [https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.76.S1 APS ballistic missile defence report], to this day (mid 2022) the most comprehensive public report on all things missile defence (most newer stuff simply references this for any quantitative results, and then waves their hands about and declare this a "novel contribution")<br />
<br />
The [https://csps.aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Wilson-Dunham_MissileThreat_20200826_0.pdf Wilson and Dunham] paper suggesting a new way to classify missiles. Also provides some discussion on why we have the range classes we have.<br />
<br />
== Todo ==<br />
this page should be a short summary of missiles as it relates to arms control, with a short history (not a full history, that will be on the history page) of Von Braun and the V2, arms control treaties concerning missiles, then what systems are actively deployed/by whom, finally the future of missiles and how they relate to arms control<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<br />
[[Category:Missiles]]</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Missile&diff=2489Missile2022-11-27T16:45:37Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>The term missile has trough recent history been applied to ha very broad set of weapons, and so does not actually have one fix meaning. <br />
<br />
On this wiki, the term is most likely to be short for "missile system" in the spirit of Wilson and Dunham 2020<ref>https://csps.aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Wilson-Dunham_MissileThreat_20200826_0.pdf</ref>:<br />
<br />
* A missile system consists of a rocket and (at least) a weaponized payload that flies trough the air <br />
<br />
The rocket is commonly called a "booster", while the weaponised payload is sometimes said to carry "munitions". <br />
<br />
Note that the "(at least)" bit implies there can be more parts to a missile than just the rocket motor and the warhead, this is primarily intended to capture the important class of "cruise missiles" that fly a long part of their trajectory powered by a "sustainer" part and not by the rocket part.<br />
<br />
Within this definition you can find a wide variety of what is to be considered a missile, and also a large variety of [[missile classifications]]. Here we will mostly discuss larger and longer range missiles.<br />
<br />
There is however a risk that "missile" refers to "Air launched cruise missile", weapons which by virtue of being launched from the air commonly does not need the booster. <br />
<br />
== History == <br />
The history of the missile relevant in the arms control sense starts with the German V2 missile, which was ballistic missile and as such not very accurate. However, being inaccurate is ok if you can make a really big boom at the end, and thus after World war 2 ballistic missiles were at first mostly used to deliver nuclear weapons.<br />
<br />
== Resources ==<br />
Markus Schiller provides a [https://www.iiss.org/blogs/research-paper/2022/04/missile-identification-and-assessment short] introduction to (large) ballistic missiles, covering basics on rocketry and propulsions, as well as a section on how to estimate missile properties from open sources.<br />
<br />
The fabled 2003 [https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.76.S1 APS ballistic missile defence report], to this day (mid 2022) the most comprehensive public report on all things missile defence (most newer stuff simply references this for any quantitative results, and then waves their hands about and declare this a "novel contribution")<br />
<br />
The [https://csps.aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Wilson-Dunham_MissileThreat_20200826_0.pdf Wilson and Dunham] paper suggesting a new way to classify missiles. Also provides some discussion on why we have the range classes we have.<br />
<br />
== Todo ==<br />
this page should be a short summary of missiles as it relates to arms control, with a short history (not a full history, that will be on the history page) of Von Braun and the V2, arms control treaties concerning missiles, then what systems are actively deployed/by whom, finally the future of missiles and how they relate to arms control<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<br />
[[Category:Missiles]]</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Nov_15_Przewodow_explosion&diff=2488Nov 15 Przewodow explosion2022-11-22T22:09:33Z<p>Tobychev: /* November 15 */</p>
<hr />
<div>This case study is intended as a example of how there is great confusion in the direct aftermath of an event, and that the "direct aftermath" in the OSINT world doesn't start until things show up online<br />
<br />
== Analysis ==<br />
Initially, the explosion was interpreted as an attack on Poland by Russia, and initial steps were taken to meet and discuss a potential invocation of [[NATO Article 4]].<ref>https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1592808775991246848?s=20&t=7xDcm3G_1-RoqLXCQEnvkg</ref> While these steps were withdrawn, it's a good reminder that these kinds of interactions can easily spiral out of control.<br />
<br />
== Timeline ==<br />
<br />
=== November 15 ===<br />
* At 15:40 local time (CET, GMT+1) an explosion was reported to national authorities in Przewodow<ref>https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1592654792144584705</ref><br />
* Seemingly at 17:54 local time, public radio publishes its first news about the explosion<ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/wybuch-ciagnika-w-miejscowosci-przewodow-nie-zyja-dwie-osoby/</ref>, reporting two dead. Photos from the site of the explosions taken at 16:14 are also found at this site, possible already in the first update.<br />
* At 18:28 local time, a journalist at the national commercial radio station Radio Zet tweeted<ref>https://twitter.com/MariuszGierszew/status/1592570215443070976</ref> the story that two missiles fell in Przewodow<br />
* At 18:28 local time, Warsawa tabloid daily publishes a story<ref>https://www.fakt.pl/polityka/premier-zwoluje-komitet-rady-ministrow-do-spraw-bezpieczenstwa-narodowego/3x8peeg?utm_source=www.fakt.pl_viasg_fakt&utm_medium=referal&utm_campaign=leo_automatic&srcc=ucs&utm_v=2#slide-1</ref> that the national crisis group will convene, and vaguely references information that the meeting is related to the explosion in Przewodow. The story also states AP has reported that Russian missiles might have hit Poland.<br />
* At 18:34 local time, public radio publishes<ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/premier-zwolal-w-trybie-pilnym-komitet-rady-ministrow-do-spraw-bezpieczenstwa-narodowego-i-spraw-obronnych/</ref> a story that the national crisis group will convene, but no concrete cause is reported<br />
* Seemingly at 18:42 local time, public radio publishes<ref>https://archive.ph/vesrJ</ref> that the governor went to Przewodow.<br />
* At 18:54 local time, a Radio Zet station published online<ref>http://archive.today/2022.11.15-182649/https://wiadomosci.radiozet.pl/Polska/rakiety-spadly-na-polske-sa-ofiary-smiertelne</ref> a report from the site of the explosion. It was mostly second hand accounts, sourcing pictures from an online site covering actions by the fire fighers<ref>https://remiza.com.pl/wybuch-w-przewodowie/</ref> and a central quote from public radio <ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/wybuch-ciagnika-w-miejscowosci-przewodow-nie-zyja-dwie-osoby/</ref>. It also referenced "unofficial sources" stating that the explosion was caused by two stray missiles. It did not state the time of the explosion.<br />
* At 19:04 local time, (norwegian?) twitter account Faytuks News post a link<ref>https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1592580008505401344</ref> to the Radio Zet story on his feed. At 19:13 local time the tweet is posted on the ACW slack<br />
* At 19:41 local time, Latvian minister of defence posted a message<ref>https://twitter.com/Pabriks/status/1592588505393541122</ref> expressing condolences with the polish people and claiming the missiles were fired by Russia<br />
* At 19:43 local time, American journalist Jim La Porta references<ref>http://archive.today/2022.11.15-201848/https://twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1592589217623789568</ref> "a senior U.S. intelligence official" stating that there were two missiles and that they were Russian. It gets posted on the ACW slack at 19:44<br />
* At 20:11 local time, American journalist Laura Kelly reports<ref>https://twitter.com/HelloLauraKelly/status/1592596264478470145</ref> that the Pentagon cannot corroborate that two Russian missiles struck Przewodow. Journalist Idrees Ali reports the same thing at the same time, which is posted on the ACW slack at 20:20<br />
* At 20:46 local time, Slovakian minister of defence Jaroslav Naď posts a message<ref>https://twitter.com/JaroNad/status/1592605004149366784</ref> declaring that Russia must explain the events in Przewodow, stating that "Russian missiles" fell in Poland.<br />
<br />
=== November 16 ===<br />
<br />
===== Timeline for "Russian made" =====<br />
* At 00:04 local time (on the 16th) American journalist Phil Stewart reports that Polish MFA has stated that "Russian produced rocket fell on [...] Przewodow" at the time the explosion happened. It was posted on the ACW slack at 00:10 local time (on the 16th)<br />
* At 00:15 local time (on the 16th) public radio published<ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/msz-na-terenie-przewodowa-spadl-spadl-pocisk-produkcji-rosyjskiej-ambasador-rosji-wezwany-do-msz/</ref> a report that the Polish MFA had issued a press release<ref>https://www.gov.pl/web/dyplomacja/komunikat-w-zwiazku-z-wezwaniem-ambasadora-federacji-rosyjskiej-do-msz</ref> where the MFA described the explosion in Przewodow as being a "Russian made missile", and stated they had called the Russian ambassador to give an explanation.<br />
<br />
===== Debbie downer timeline =====<br />
* At 2:31 local time (on the 16th) Reuters posted<ref>https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1592691774908252161</ref> a message on twitter stating that "No concrete evidence on who fired missile, Poland's Duda says". It was posted on the ACW slack at 2:41 local time (on the 16th).<br />
* At around 2:50 local time (on the 16th) US president Biden has a short press conference where he says it is unlikely the missiles were fired from Russia. A youtube clip<ref>https://youtu.be/UydGg9ze1kA</ref> of the event is posted on the ACW slack at 3:04 local time (on the 16th) <br />
* At 6:04 local time (on the 16th) american journalist Jon Gambrell reported<ref>https://twitter.com/jongambrellap/status/1592745324199776257</ref> on twitter that US government officials were saying it was a Ukrainian missile. This gets posted to the slack at 6:04 local time (on the 16th).<br />
<br />
===== Timeline for Zelensky comments =====<br />
<br />
* Around 19:12 local time, Zelensky stated "I have no doubt that it was not our missile or our missile strike. We have to participate in the investigation."<ref>https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1592928556635471873</ref> However, both Ukraine and the US agree that ultimate responsibility for the explosion falls on Russia.<ref>https://twitter.com/vmsalama/status/1592932638230446081?s=20&t=EJHZ88AppH7WrxF25u8TAw</ref><br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<references /><br />
[[Category:Ukraine]]<br />
[[Category:Russo-Ukrainian War]]<br />
[[Category:Case Studies]]</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Nov_15_Przewodow_explosion&diff=2487Nov 15 Przewodow explosion2022-11-22T21:58:24Z<p>Tobychev: /* November 15 */</p>
<hr />
<div>This case study is intended as a example of how there is great confusion in the direct aftermath of an event, and that the "direct aftermath" in the OSINT world doesn't start until things show up online<br />
<br />
== Analysis ==<br />
Initially, the explosion was interpreted as an attack on Poland by Russia, and initial steps were taken to meet and discuss a potential invocation of [[NATO Article 4]].<ref>https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1592808775991246848?s=20&t=7xDcm3G_1-RoqLXCQEnvkg</ref> While these steps were withdrawn, it's a good reminder that these kinds of interactions can easily spiral out of control.<br />
<br />
== Timeline ==<br />
<br />
=== November 15 ===<br />
* At 15:40 local time (CET, GMT+1) an explosion was reported to national authorities in Przewodow<ref>https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1592654792144584705</ref><br />
* Seemingly at 17:54 local time, public radio publishes its first news about the explosion<ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/wybuch-ciagnika-w-miejscowosci-przewodow-nie-zyja-dwie-osoby/</ref>, reporting two dead. Photos from the site of the explosions taken at 16:14 are also found at this site, possible already in the first update.<br />
* At 18:28 local time, a journalist at the national commercial radio station Radio Zet tweeted<ref>https://twitter.com/MariuszGierszew/status/1592570215443070976</ref> the story that two missiles fell in Przewodow<br />
* At 18:28 local time, Warsawa tabloid daily publishes a story<ref>https://www.fakt.pl/polityka/premier-zwoluje-komitet-rady-ministrow-do-spraw-bezpieczenstwa-narodowego/3x8peeg?utm_source=www.fakt.pl_viasg_fakt&utm_medium=referal&utm_campaign=leo_automatic&srcc=ucs&utm_v=2#slide-1</ref> that the national crisis group will convene, and vaguely references information that the meeting is related to the explosion in Przewodow. The story also states AP has reported that Russian missiles might have hit Poland.<br />
* At 18:34 local time, public radio publishes<ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/premier-zwolal-w-trybie-pilnym-komitet-rady-ministrow-do-spraw-bezpieczenstwa-narodowego-i-spraw-obronnych/</ref> a story that the national crisis group will convene, but no concrete cause is reported<br />
* Seemingly at 18:42 local time, public radio publishes<ref>https://archive.ph/vesrJ</ref> that the governor went to Przewodow.<br />
* At 18:54 local time, a Radio Zet station published online<ref>http://archive.today/2022.11.15-182649/https://wiadomosci.radiozet.pl/Polska/rakiety-spadly-na-polske-sa-ofiary-smiertelne</ref> a report from the site of the explosion. It was mostly second hand accounts, sourcing pictures from an online site covering actions by the fire fighers<ref>https://remiza.com.pl/wybuch-w-przewodowie/</ref> and a central quote from public radio <ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/wybuch-ciagnika-w-miejscowosci-przewodow-nie-zyja-dwie-osoby/</ref>. It also referenced "unofficial sources" stating that the explosion was caused by two stray missiles. It did not state the time of the explosion.<br />
* At 19:04 local time, (norwegian?) twitter account Faytuks News post a link<ref>https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1592580008505401344</ref> to the Radio Zet story on his feed. At 19:13 local time the tweet is posted on the ACW slack<br />
* At 19:41 local time, Latvian minister of defence posted a message<ref>https://twitter.com/Pabriks/status/1592588505393541122</ref> expressing condolences with the polish people and claiming the missiles were fired by Russia<br />
* At 19:43 local time, American journalist Jim La Porta references<ref>http://archive.today/2022.11.15-201848/https://twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1592589217623789568</ref> "a senior U.S. intelligence official" stating that there were two missiles and that they were Russian. It gets posted on the ACW slack at 19:44<br />
* At 20:11 local time, American journalist Laura Kelly reports<ref>https://twitter.com/HelloLauraKelly/status/1592596264478470145</ref> that the Pentagon cannot corroborate that two Russian missiles struck Przewodow. Journalist Idrees Ali reports the same thing at the same time, which is posted on the ACW slack at 20:20<br />
<br />
=== November 16 ===<br />
<br />
===== Timeline for "Russian made" =====<br />
* At 00:04 local time (on the 16th) American journalist Phil Stewart reports that Polish MFA has stated that "Russian produced rocket fell on [...] Przewodow" at the time the explosion happened. It was posted on the ACW slack at 00:10 local time (on the 16th)<br />
* At 00:15 local time (on the 16th) public radio published<ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/msz-na-terenie-przewodowa-spadl-spadl-pocisk-produkcji-rosyjskiej-ambasador-rosji-wezwany-do-msz/</ref> a report that the Polish MFA had issued a press release<ref>https://www.gov.pl/web/dyplomacja/komunikat-w-zwiazku-z-wezwaniem-ambasadora-federacji-rosyjskiej-do-msz</ref> where the MFA described the explosion in Przewodow as being a "Russian made missile", and stated they had called the Russian ambassador to give an explanation.<br />
<br />
===== Debbie downer timeline =====<br />
* At 2:31 local time (on the 16th) Reuters posted<ref>https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1592691774908252161</ref> a message on twitter stating that "No concrete evidence on who fired missile, Poland's Duda says". It was posted on the ACW slack at 2:41 local time (on the 16th).<br />
* At around 2:50 local time (on the 16th) US president Biden has a short press conference where he says it is unlikely the missiles were fired from Russia. A youtube clip<ref>https://youtu.be/UydGg9ze1kA</ref> of the event is posted on the ACW slack at 3:04 local time (on the 16th) <br />
* At 6:04 local time (on the 16th) american journalist Jon Gambrell reported<ref>https://twitter.com/jongambrellap/status/1592745324199776257</ref> on twitter that US government officials were saying it was a Ukrainian missile. This gets posted to the slack at 6:04 local time (on the 16th).<br />
<br />
===== Timeline for Zelensky comments =====<br />
<br />
* Around 19:12 local time, Zelensky stated "I have no doubt that it was not our missile or our missile strike. We have to participate in the investigation."<ref>https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1592928556635471873</ref> However, both Ukraine and the US agree that ultimate responsibility for the explosion falls on Russia.<ref>https://twitter.com/vmsalama/status/1592932638230446081?s=20&t=EJHZ88AppH7WrxF25u8TAw</ref><br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<references /><br />
[[Category:Ukraine]]<br />
[[Category:Russo-Ukrainian War]]<br />
[[Category:Case Studies]]</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Missile&diff=2486Missile2022-11-17T16:59:39Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>The word missile has a quite general meaning, but here it is to be understood as short for "missile systems" unless clearly indicated by the context. The definition of "missile system" used follow Wilson and Dunham 2020<ref>https://csps.aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Wilson-Dunham_MissileThreat_20200826_0.pdf</ref>:<br />
<br />
* A missile system flies trough the air and consists of a rocket and (at least) a weaponized payload <br />
<br />
The rocket is commonly called a "booster", while the weaponised payload is sometimes said to carry "munitions". <br />
<br />
Note that the "(at least)" bit implies there can be more parts to a missile than just the rocket motor and the warhead, this is primarily intended to capture the important class of "cruise missiles" that fly a long part of their trajectory powered by a "sustainer" part and not by the rocket part.<br />
<br />
Within this definition you can find a wide variety of what is to be considered a missile, and also a large variety of [[missile classifications]]. Here we will mostly discuss larger and longer range missiles.<br />
<br />
== History == <br />
The history of the missile relevant in the arms control sense starts with the German V2 missile, which was ballistic missile and as such not very accurate. However, being inaccurate is ok if you can make a really big boom at the end, and thus ballistic missiles were at first mostly used <br />
<br />
== Resources ==<br />
Markus Schiller provides a [https://www.iiss.org/blogs/research-paper/2022/04/missile-identification-and-assessment short] introduction to (large) ballistic missiles, covering basics on rocketry and propulsions, as well as a section on how to estimate missile properties from open sources.<br />
<br />
The fabled 2003 [https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.76.S1 APS ballistic missile defence report], to this day (mid 2022) the most comprehensive public report on all things missile defence (most newer stuff simply references this for any quantitative results, and then waves their hands about and declare this a "novel contribution")<br />
<br />
The [https://csps.aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Wilson-Dunham_MissileThreat_20200826_0.pdf Wilson and Dunham] paper suggesting a new way to classify missiles. Also provides some discussion on why we have the range classes we have.<br />
<br />
== Todo ==<br />
this page should be a short summary of missiles as it relates to arms control, with a short history (not a full history, that will be on the history page) of Von Braun and the V2, arms control treaties concerning missiles, then what systems are actively deployed/by whom, finally the future of missiles and how they relate to arms control<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<br />
[[Category:Missiles]]</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Missile_classifications&diff=2485Missile classifications2022-11-17T16:59:30Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>Missile systems, in the meaning given in [[Missile|missile]], have been classified based on a wide variety of properties, including: flight path type, range, launching platform, propulsion, warhead, and guidance system. <br />
<br />
__TOC__<br />
<br />
== Flight path type ==<br />
This is really if the weapon payload mainly follows a [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballistics ballistic arc] or not. Consequently there are only two categories:<br />
<br />
* Ballistic missiles<br />
* Cruise missiles<br />
<br />
The name "cruise missile" is a historical artefact, invented much after the term ballistic missile was established. <br />
<br />
As weapon technology developed it has become more common for the weapon payload to perform significant manoeuvrers during its flight, in practice living in a mix between the two classes.<br />
<br />
== Range ==<br />
The simplest and most intuitive classification system: How far can the weapon payload go?<br />
<br />
{|<br />
|+ Range classes based on Wilson Dunham 2020<ref>https://csps.aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Wilson-Dunham_MissileThreat_20200826_0.pdf</ref><br />
|-<br />
! Class Name !! Distance interval<br />
|-<br />
| align=left width=180px | Close Range <br />
| align=center | 30 km to 300 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Short Range <br />
| align=center | 300 km to 1000 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Medium Range <br />
| align=center | 1000 km to 3000 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Intermediate Range <br />
| align=center | 3000 km to 5500 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Intercontinental Range <br />
| align=center | 5500 km to 20 000 km<br />
|}<br />
Note that the lower limit of the Close Range class and the upper limit on the Intercontinental Range class are frequently not stated but they probably exist in practice. <br />
<br />
For example, a maximum range of 30 km means the missile is competing with conventional tube artillery, which is qualitatively different than a missile that can reach much further than conventional artillery. Similarly, if the missile can go much further than halfway around the world, it can attack the same target from two opposite directions and it is likely people will classify it as some sort of [[FOBS (Fractional Orbital Bombardment System)|FOBS]].<br />
<br />
[[Category:Classifications]]<br />
<br />
== References ==</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Missile_classifications&diff=2484Missile classifications2022-11-17T16:58:39Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>Missile systems, in the meaning given in [[Missile|missile]], have been classified based on a wide variety of properties, including: flight path type, range, launching platform, propulsion, warhead, and guidance system. <br />
<br />
== Flight path type ==<br />
This is really if the weapon payload mainly follows a [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballistics ballistic arc] or not. Consequently there are only two categories:<br />
<br />
* Ballistic missiles<br />
* Cruise missiles<br />
<br />
The name "cruise missile" is a historical artefact, invented much after the term ballistic missile was established. <br />
<br />
As weapon technology developed it has become more common for the weapon payload to perform significant manoeuvrers during its flight, in practice living in a mix between the two classes.<br />
<br />
== Range ==<br />
The simplest and most intuitive classification system: How far can the weapon payload go?<br />
<br />
{|<br />
|+ Range classes based on Wilson Dunham 2020<ref>https://csps.aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Wilson-Dunham_MissileThreat_20200826_0.pdf</ref><br />
|-<br />
! Class Name !! Distance interval<br />
|-<br />
| align=left width=180px | Close Range <br />
| align=center | 30 km to 300 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Short Range <br />
| align=center | 300 km to 1000 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Medium Range <br />
| align=center | 1000 km to 3000 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Intermediate Range <br />
| align=center | 3000 km to 5500 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Intercontinental Range <br />
| align=center | 5500 km to 20 000 km<br />
|}<br />
Note that the lower limit of the Close Range class and the upper limit on the Intercontinental Range class are frequently not stated but they probably exist in practice. <br />
<br />
For example, a maximum range of 30 km means the missile is competing with conventional tube artillery, which is qualitatively different than a missile that can reach much further than conventional artillery. Similarly, if the missile can go much further than halfway around the world, it can attack the same target from two opposite directions and it is likely people will classify it as some sort of [[FOBS (Fractional Orbital Bombardment System)|FOBS]].<br />
<br />
[[Category:Classifications]]<br />
<br />
== References ==</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Missile&diff=2483Missile2022-11-17T16:51:32Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>The word missile has a quite general meaning, but here it is to be understood as short for "missile systems" unless clearly indicated by the context. The definition of "missile system" used follow Wilson and Dunham 2020<ref>https://csps.aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Wilson-Dunham_MissileThreat_20200826_0.pdf</ref>:<br />
<br />
* A missile system flies trough the air and consists of a rocket and (at least) a weaponized payload <br />
<br />
The rocket is commonly called a "booster", while the weaponised payload is sometimes said to carry "munitions". <br />
<br />
Note that the "(at least)" bit implies there can be more parts to a missile than just the rocket motor and the warhead, this is primarily intended to capture the important class of "cruise missiles" that fly a long part of their trajectory powered by a "sustainer" part and not by the rocket part.<br />
<br />
Within this definition you can find a wide variety of what is to be considered a missile, and also a large variety of [[missile classifications]]. Here we will mostly discuss larger and longer range missiles.<br />
<br />
== Resources ==<br />
Markus Schiller provides a [https://www.iiss.org/blogs/research-paper/2022/04/missile-identification-and-assessment short] introduction to (large) ballistic missiles, covering basics on rocketry and propulsions, as well as a section on how to estimate missile properties from open sources.<br />
<br />
The fabled 2003 [https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.76.S1 APS ballistic missile defence report], to this day (mid 2022) the most comprehensive public report on all things missile defence (most newer stuff simply references this for any quantitative results, and then waves their hands about and declare this a "novel contribution")<br />
<br />
The [https://csps.aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Wilson-Dunham_MissileThreat_20200826_0.pdf Wilson and Dunham] paper suggesting a new way to classify missiles. Also provides some discussion on why we have the range classes we have.<br />
<br />
== Todo ==<br />
this page should be a short summary of missiles as it relates to arms control, with a short history (not a full history, that will be on the history page) of Von Braun and the V2, arms control treaties concerning missiles, then what systems are actively deployed/by whom, finally the future of missiles and how they relate to arms control<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<br />
[[Category:Missiles]]</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Missile_classifications&diff=2482Missile classifications2022-11-17T14:00:57Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>Missile systems, in the meaning given in [[Missile|missile]], have been classified based on a wide variety of properties, including: flight path type, range, launching platform, propulsion, warhead, and guidance system. <br />
<br />
== Flight path type ==<br />
This is really if the weapon payload mainly follows a [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballistics ballistic arc] or not. Consequently there are only two categories:<br />
<br />
* Ballistic missiles<br />
* Cruise missiles<br />
<br />
The name "cruise missile" is a historical artefact, invented much after the term ballistic missile was established. <br />
<br />
As weapon technology developed it has become more common for the weapon payload to perform significant manoeuvrers during its flight, in practice living in a mix between the two classes.<br />
<br />
== Range ==<br />
The simplest and most intuitive classification system: How far can the weapon payload go?<br />
<br />
{|<br />
|+ Range classes based on Wilson Dunham 2020<ref>https://csps.aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Wilson-Dunham_MissileThreat_20200826_0.pdf</ref><br />
|-<br />
! Class Name !! Distance interval<br />
|-<br />
| align=left width=180px | Close Range <br />
| align=center | 30 km to 300 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Short Range <br />
| align=center | 300 km to 1000 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Medium Range <br />
| align=center | 1000 km to 3000 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Intermediate Range <br />
| align=center | 3000 km to 5500 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Intercontinental Range <br />
| align=center | 5500 km to 20 000 km<br />
|}<br />
Note that the lower limit of the Close Range class and the upper limit on the Intercontinental Range class are frequently not stated but they probably exist in practice. <br />
<br />
For example, a maximum range of 30 km means the missile is competing with conventional tube artillery, which is qualitatively different than a missile that can reach much further than conventional artillery. Similarly, if the missile can go much further than halfway around the world, it can attack the same target from two opposite directions and it is likely people will classify it as some sort of [[FOBS (Fractional Orbital Bombardment System)|FOBS]].<br />
<br />
== References ==</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Missile_classifications&diff=2481Missile classifications2022-11-17T14:00:40Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>Missile systems, in the meaning given in [[Missile|missile]], have been classified based on a wide variety of properties, including: flight path type, range, launching platform, propulsion, warhead, and guidance system. <br />
<br />
== Flight path type ==<br />
This is really if the weapon payload mainly follows a [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballistics ballistic arc] or not. Consequently there are only two categories:<br />
<br />
* Ballistic missiles<br />
* Cruise missiles<br />
<br />
The name "cruise missile" is a historical artefact, invented much after the term ballistic missile was established. <br />
<br />
As weapon technology developed it has become more common for the weapon payload to perform significant manoeuvrers during its flight, in practice living in a mix between the two classes.<br />
<br />
== Range ==<br />
The simplest and most intuitive classification system: How far can the weapon payload go?<br />
<br />
{|<br />
|+ Range classes based on Wilson Dunham 2020<ref>https://csps.aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Wilson-Dunham_MissileThreat_20200826_0.pdf</ref><br />
|-<br />
! Class Name !! Distance interval<br />
|-<br />
| align=left width=180px | Close Range <br />
| align=center | 30 km to 300 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Short Range <br />
| align=center | 300 km to 1000 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Medium Range <br />
| align=center | 1000 km to 3000 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Intermediate Range <br />
| align=center | 3000 km to 5500 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Intercontinental Range <br />
| align=center | 5500 km to 20 000 km<br />
|}<br />
Note that the lower limit of the Close Range class and the upper limit on the Intercontinental Range class are frequently not stated but they probably exist in practice. <br />
<br />
For example, a maximum range of 30 km means the missile is competing with conventional tube artillery, which is qualitatively different than a missile that can reach much further than conventional artillery. Similarly, if the missile can go much further than halfway around the world, it can attack the same target from two opposite directions and it is likely people will classify it as some sort of [[FOBS (Fractional Orbital Bombardment System)|FOBS]].</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Missile_classifications&diff=2480Missile classifications2022-11-17T13:56:40Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>Missile systems, in the meaning given in [[Missile|missile]], have been classified based on a wide variety of properties, including: flight path type, range, launching platform, propulsion, warhead, and guidance system. <br />
<br />
== Flight path type ==<br />
This is really if the weapon payload mainly follows a [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballistics ballistic arc] or not. Consequently there are only two categories:<br />
<br />
* Ballistic missiles<br />
* Cruise missiles<br />
<br />
The name "cruise missile" is a historical artefact, invented much after the term ballistic missile was established. <br />
<br />
As weapon technology developed it has become more common for the weapon payload to perform significant manoeuvrers during its flight, in practice living in a mix between the two classes.<br />
<br />
== Range ==<br />
The simplest and most intuitive classification system: How far can the weapon payload go?<br />
<br />
{|<br />
|+ Range classes<br />
|-<br />
! Class Name !! Distance interval<br />
|-<br />
| align=left width=180px | Close Range <br />
| align=center | 30 km to 300 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Short Range <br />
| align=center | 300 km to 1000 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Medium Range <br />
| align=center | 1000 km to 3000 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Intermediate Range <br />
| align=center | 3000 km to 5500 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Intercontinental Range <br />
| align=center | 5500 km to 20 000 km<br />
|}<br />
Note that the lower limit of the Close Range class and the upper limit on the Intercontinental Range class are frequently not stated but they probably exist in practice. <br />
<br />
For example, a maximum range of 30 km means the missile is competing with conventional tube artillery, which is qualitatively different than a missile that can reach much further than conventional artillery. Similarly, if the missile can go much further than halfway around the world, it can attack the same target from two opposite directions and it is likely people will classify it as some sort of [[FOBS (Fractional Orbital Bombardment System)|FOBS]].</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Missile_classifications&diff=2479Missile classifications2022-11-17T13:40:39Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>Missile systems, in the meaning given in [[Missile missile]], have been classified based on a wide variety of properties, including: flight path type, range, launching platform, propulsion, warhead, and guidance system. <br />
<br />
== Flight path type ==<br />
This is really if the weapon payload mainly follows a [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballistics ballistic arc] or not. Consequently there are only two categories:<br />
<br />
* Ballistic missiles<br />
* Cruise missiles<br />
<br />
The name "cruise missile" is a historical artefact, invented much after the term ballistic missile was established. <br />
<br />
As weapon technology developed it has become more common for the weapon payload to perform significant manoeuvrers during its flight, in practice living in a mix between the two classes.<br />
<br />
== Range ==<br />
The simplest and most intuitive classification system: How far can the weapon payload go?<br />
<br />
{|<br />
|+ Range classes<br />
|-<br />
! Class Name !! Distance interval<br />
|-<br />
| align=left width=180px | Close Range <br />
| align=center | 30 km to 300 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Short Range <br />
| align=center | 300 km to 1000 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Medium Range <br />
| align=center | 1000 km to 3000 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Intermediate Range <br />
| align=center | 3000 km to 5500 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Intercontinental Range <br />
| align=center | 5500 km to 20 000 km<br />
|}</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Missile_classifications&diff=2478Missile classifications2022-11-17T13:37:44Z<p>Tobychev: /* Range */</p>
<hr />
<div>Missile systems, in the meaning given in [[Missile missile]], have been classified based on a wide variety of properties, including: flight path type, range, launching platform, propulsion, warhead, and guidance system. <br />
<br />
== Flight path type ==<br />
This is really if the weapon payload mainly follows a [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballistics ballistic arc] or not. Consequently there are only two categories:<br />
<br />
* Ballistic missiles<br />
* Cruise missiles<br />
<br />
The name "cruise missile" is a historical artefact, invented much after the term ballistic missile was established. <br />
<br />
As weapon technology developed it has become more common for the weapon payload to perform significant manoeuvrers during its flight, in practice living in a mix between the two classes.<br />
<br />
== Range ==<br />
The simplest and most intuitive classification system: How far can the weapon payload go?<br />
<br />
{|<br />
|+ Range classes<br />
|-<br />
! Class Name !! Distance interval<br />
|-<br />
| align=left width=180px | Close Range <br />
| align=center | 30 km to 300 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Short Range <br />
| align=center | 300 km to 1000 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Medium Range <br />
| align=center | 1000 km to 3000 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Intermediate Range <br />
| align=center | 3000 km to 5500 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Intercontinental Range <br />
| align=center | 5500 km to 40 000 km<br />
|}</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Missile_classifications&diff=2477Missile classifications2022-11-17T13:32:22Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>Missile systems, in the meaning given in [[Missile missile]], have been classified based on a wide variety of properties, including: flight path type, range, launching platform, propulsion, warhead, and guidance system. <br />
<br />
== Flight path type ==<br />
This is really if the weapon payload mainly follows a [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballistics ballistic arc] or not. Consequently there are only two categories:<br />
<br />
* Ballistic missiles<br />
* Cruise missiles<br />
<br />
The name "cruise missile" is a historical artefact, invented much after the term ballistic missile was established. <br />
<br />
As weapon technology developed it has become more common for the weapon payload to perform significant manoeuvrers during its flight, in practice living in a mix between the two classes.<br />
<br />
== Range ==<br />
The simplest and most intuitive classification system: How far can the weapon payload go?<br />
<br />
{|<br />
|+ Range classes<br />
|-<br />
! Class Name !! Distance interval<br />
|-<br />
| align=left width=60px | Close Range Missile <br />
| align=center | 30 km to 300 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Short Range Missile <br />
| align=center | 300 km to 1000 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Medium Range Missile <br />
| align=center | 1000 km to 3000 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Intermediate Range Missile <br />
| align=center | 3000 km to 5500 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Intercontinental range Missile <br />
| align=center | 5500 km to 40 000 km<br />
|}</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Missile_classifications&diff=2476Missile classifications2022-11-17T13:31:27Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>Missile systems, in the meaning given in [[Missile missile]], have been classified based on a wide variety of properties, including: flight path type, range, launching platform, propulsion, warhead, and guidance system. <br />
<br />
== Flight path type ==<br />
This is really if the weapon payload mainly follows a [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballistics ballistic arc] or not. Consequently there are only two categories:<br />
<br />
* Ballistic missiles<br />
* Cruise missiles<br />
<br />
The name "cruise missile" is a historical artefact, invented much after the term ballistic missile was established. <br />
<br />
As weapon technology developed it has become more common for the weapon payload to perform significant manoeuvrers during its flight, in practice living in a mix between the two classes.<br />
<br />
== Range ==<br />
The simplest and most intuitive classification system: How far can the weapon payload go?<br />
<br />
{|<br />
|+ Range classes<br />
|-<br />
! Class Name !! Distance interval<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Close Range Missile <br />
| align=center | 30 km to 300 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Short Range Missile <br />
| align=center | 300 km to 1000 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Medium Range Missile <br />
| align=center | 1000 km to 3000 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Intermediate Range Missile <br />
| align=center | 3000 km to 5500 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Intercontinental range Missile <br />
| align=center | 5500 km to 40 000 km<br />
|}</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Missile_classifications&diff=2475Missile classifications2022-11-17T13:31:10Z<p>Tobychev: /* Range */</p>
<hr />
<div>Missile systems, in the meaning given in [[Missile missile]], have been classified based on a wide variety of properties, including: flight path type, range, launching platform, propulsion, warhead, and guidance system. <br />
<br />
== Flight path type ==<br />
This is really if the weapon payload mainly follows a [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballistics ballistic arc] or not. Consequently there are only two categories:<br />
<br />
* Ballistic missiles<br />
* Cruise missiles<br />
<br />
The name "cruise missile" is a historical artefact, invented much after the term ballistic missile was established. <br />
<br />
As weapon technology developed it has become more common for the weapon payload to perform significant manoeuvrers during its flight, in practice living in a mix between the two classes.<br />
<br />
== Range ==<br />
The simplest and most intuitive classification system: How far can the weapon payload go?<br />
<br />
{|<br />
|+ Range classes<br />
|-<br />
! Class Name !! Distance interval<br />
|-<br />
| align=left width=5% | Close Range Missile <br />
| align=center width=5%| 30 km to 300 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Short Range Missile <br />
| align=center | 300 km to 1000 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Medium Range Missile <br />
| align=center | 1000 km to 3000 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Intermediate Range Missile <br />
| align=center | 3000 km to 5500 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=left | Intercontinental range Missile <br />
| align=center | 5500 km to 40 000 km<br />
|}</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Missile_classifications&diff=2474Missile classifications2022-11-17T13:27:02Z<p>Tobychev: /* Range */</p>
<hr />
<div>Missile systems, in the meaning given in [[Missile missile]], have been classified based on a wide variety of properties, including: flight path type, range, launching platform, propulsion, warhead, and guidance system. <br />
<br />
== Flight path type ==<br />
This is really if the weapon payload mainly follows a [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballistics ballistic arc] or not. Consequently there are only two categories:<br />
<br />
* Ballistic missiles<br />
* Cruise missiles<br />
<br />
The name "cruise missile" is a historical artefact, invented much after the term ballistic missile was established. <br />
<br />
As weapon technology developed it has become more common for the weapon payload to perform significant manoeuvrers during its flight, in practice living in a mix between the two classes.<br />
<br />
== Range ==<br />
The simplest and most intuitive classification system: How far can the weapon payload go?<br />
<br />
{|<br />
|+ Range classes<br />
|-<br />
! Class Name !! Distance interval<br />
|-<br />
| align=right | Close Range Missile || 30 km to 300 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=right | Short Range Missile || 300 km to 1000 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=right | Medium Range Missile || 1000 km to 3000 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=right | Intermediate Range Missile || 3000 km to 5500 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=right | Intercontinental range Missile || 5500 km to 40 000 km<br />
|}</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Missile_classifications&diff=2473Missile classifications2022-11-17T13:26:38Z<p>Tobychev: /* Range */</p>
<hr />
<div>Missile systems, in the meaning given in [[Missile missile]], have been classified based on a wide variety of properties, including: flight path type, range, launching platform, propulsion, warhead, and guidance system. <br />
<br />
== Flight path type ==<br />
This is really if the weapon payload mainly follows a [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballistics ballistic arc] or not. Consequently there are only two categories:<br />
<br />
* Ballistic missiles<br />
* Cruise missiles<br />
<br />
The name "cruise missile" is a historical artefact, invented much after the term ballistic missile was established. <br />
<br />
As weapon technology developed it has become more common for the weapon payload to perform significant manoeuvrers during its flight, in practice living in a mix between the two classes.<br />
<br />
== Range ==<br />
The simplest and most intuitive classification system: How far can the weapon payload go?<br />
<br />
{|<br />
|+ Range classes<br />
|-<br />
! Class Name !! Distance interval<br />
|-<br />
| align=center | Close Range Missile || 30 km to 300 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=center | Short Range Missile || 300 km to 1000 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=center | Medium Range Missile || 1000 km to 3000 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=center | Intermediate Range Missile || 3000 km to 5500 km<br />
|-<br />
| align=center | Intercontinental range Missile || 5500 km to 40 000 km<br />
|}</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Missile_classifications&diff=2472Missile classifications2022-11-17T13:26:16Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>Missile systems, in the meaning given in [[Missile missile]], have been classified based on a wide variety of properties, including: flight path type, range, launching platform, propulsion, warhead, and guidance system. <br />
<br />
== Flight path type ==<br />
This is really if the weapon payload mainly follows a [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballistics ballistic arc] or not. Consequently there are only two categories:<br />
<br />
* Ballistic missiles<br />
* Cruise missiles<br />
<br />
The name "cruise missile" is a historical artefact, invented much after the term ballistic missile was established. <br />
<br />
As weapon technology developed it has become more common for the weapon payload to perform significant manoeuvrers during its flight, in practice living in a mix between the two classes.<br />
<br />
== Range ==<br />
The simplest and most intuitive classification system: How far can the weapon payload go?<br />
<br />
{|<br />
|+ Range classes<br />
|-<br />
! Class Name !! Distance interval<br />
|-<br />
| align=center | Close Range Missile || 30 km to 300 km<br />
|-<br />
| Short Range Missile || 300 km to 1000 km<br />
|-<br />
| Medium Range Missile || 1000 km to 3000 km<br />
|-<br />
| Intermediate Range Missile || 3000 km to 5500 km<br />
|-<br />
| Intercontinental range Missile || 5500 km to 40 000 km<br />
|}</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Missile_classifications&diff=2471Missile classifications2022-11-17T13:20:17Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>Missile systems, in the meaning given in [[Missile missile]], have been classified based on a wide variety of properties, including: flight path type, range, launching platform, propulsion, warhead, and guidance system. <br />
<br />
== Flight path type ==<br />
This is really if the weapon payload mainly follows a [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballistics ballistic arc] or not. Consequently there are only two categories:<br />
<br />
* Ballistic missiles<br />
* Cruise missiles<br />
<br />
The name "cruise missile" is a historical artefact, invented much after the term ballistic missile was established. <br />
<br />
As weapon technology developed it has become more common for the weapon payload to perform significant manoeuvrers during its flight, in practice living in a mix between the two classes.<br />
<br />
== Range ==<br />
The simplest and most intuitive classification system: How far can the weapon payload go?<br />
<br />
{|<br />
|+ Range classes<br />
|-<br />
! Class Name !! Distance interval<br />
|-<br />
| Close Range Missile || 30 km to 300 km<br />
|-<br />
| Short Range Missile || 300 km to 1000 km<br />
|-<br />
| Medium Range Missile || 1000 km to 3000 km<br />
|-<br />
| Intermediate Range Missile || 3000 km to 5500 km<br />
|-<br />
| Intercontinental range Missile || 5500 km to 40 000 km<br />
|}</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Missile_classifications&diff=2470Missile classifications2022-11-17T13:07:21Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>Missile systems, in the meaning given in [missile], have been classified based on a wide variety of properties, including: flight path type, range, launching platform, propulsion, warhead, and guidance system. <br />
<br />
== Flight path type ==<br />
This is really if the weapon part follows a [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballistics ballistic arc] or not. Consequently there are only two categories:<br />
<br />
* Ballistic missiles<br />
* Cruise missiles<br />
<br />
The name "cruise missile" is a historical artefact, invented much after the term ballistic missile was established. <br />
As technology developed it</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Missile_classifications&diff=2469Missile classifications2022-11-17T13:00:32Z<p>Tobychev: Created page with "Missile systems, in the meaning given in [missile], have been classified based on a wide variety of properties, including: flight path type, range, launching platform, propuls..."</p>
<hr />
<div>Missile systems, in the meaning given in [missile], have been classified based on a wide variety of properties, including: flight path type, range, launching platform, propulsion, warhead, and guidance system. <br />
<br />
== Flight path type ==<br />
This is really if the weapon part follows a [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballistics ballistic arc] or not. Consequently there are only two categories:<br />
<br />
* Ballistic missiles<br />
* Cruise missiles</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Missile&diff=2468Missile2022-11-17T12:53:35Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>The word missile has a quite general meaning, but here it is to be understood as short for "missile systems" unless clearly indicated by the context. The definition of "missile system" used follow Wilson and Dunham 2020<ref>https://csps.aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Wilson-Dunham_MissileThreat_20200826_0.pdf</ref>:<br />
<br />
* A missile system flies trough the air and consists of a rocket and (at least) a weaponized payload <br />
<br />
The rocket is commonly called a "booster", while the weaponised payload is sometimes said to carry "munitions". <br />
<br />
Note that the "(at least)" bit implies there can be more parts to a missile than just the rocket motor and the warhead, this is primarily intended to capture the important class of "cruise missiles" that fly a long part of their trajectory powered by a "sustainer" part and not by the rocket part.<br />
<br />
Within this definition you can find a wide variety of what is to be considered a missile, and also a large variety of [[missile classifications]]. Here we will mostly discuss larger and longer range missiles.<br />
<br />
== Resources ==<br />
[https://www.iiss.org/blogs/research-paper/2022/04/missile-identification-and-assessment This] looks like a good introduction to missiles.<br />
<br />
The fabled 2003 [https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.76.S1 APS ballistic missile defence report], to this day (mid 2022) the most comprehensive public report on all things missile defence (most newer stuff simply references this for any quantitative results, and then waves their hands about and declare this a "novel contribution")<br />
<br />
The [https://csps.aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Wilson-Dunham_MissileThreat_20200826_0.pdf Wilson and Dunham] paper suggesting a new way to classify missiles.<br />
<br />
== Todo ==<br />
this page should be a short summary of missiles as it relates to arms control, with a short history (not a full history, that will be on the history page) of Von Braun and the V2, arms control treaties concerning missiles, then what systems are actively deployed/by whom, finally the future of missiles and how they relate to arms control<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<br />
[[Category:Missiles]]</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Missile&diff=2467Missile2022-11-17T12:38:26Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>The word missile has a quite general meaning, but here it is to be understood as short for "missile systems" unless clearly indicated by the context. The definition of "missile system" used follow Wilson and Dunham 2020<ref>https://csps.aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Wilson-Dunham_MissileThreat_20200826_0.pdf</ref>:<br />
<br />
* A missile system flies trough the air and consists of a rocket and (at least) a weaponized payload <br />
<br />
The rocket is commonly called a "booster", while the weaponised payload is sometimes said to carry "munitions". <br />
<br />
Note that the "(at least)" bit implies there can be more parts to a missile than just the rocket motor and the warhead, this is primarily intended to capture the important class of "cruise missiles" that fly a long part of their trajectory powered by a "sustainer" part and not by the rocket part.<br />
<br />
== Resources ==<br />
[https://www.iiss.org/blogs/research-paper/2022/04/missile-identification-and-assessment This] looks like a good introduction to missiles.<br />
<br />
The fabled 2003 [https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.76.S1 APS ballistic missile defence report], to this day (mid 2022) the most comprehensive public report on all things missile defence (most newer stuff simply references this for any quantitative results, and then waves their hands about and declare this a "novel contribution")<br />
<br />
The [https://csps.aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Wilson-Dunham_MissileThreat_20200826_0.pdf Wilson and Dunham] paper suggesting a new way to classify missiles.<br />
<br />
== Todo ==<br />
this page should be a short summary of missiles as it relates to arms control, with a short history (not a full history, that will be on the history page) of Von Braun and the V2, arms control treaties concerning missiles, then what systems are actively deployed/by whom, finally the future of missiles and how they relate to arms control<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<br />
[[Category:Missiles]]</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Missile&diff=2466Missile2022-11-17T12:37:59Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>The word missile has a quite general meaning, but here it is to be understood as short for "missile systems" unless clearly indicated by the context. The definition of "missile system" used follow Wilson and Dunham 2020:<ref>https://csps.aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Wilson-Dunham_MissileThreat_20200826_0.pdf</ref><br />
<br />
* A missile system flies trough the air and consists of a rocket and (at least) a weaponized payload <br />
<br />
The rocket is commonly called a "booster", while the weaponised payload is sometimes said to carry "munitions". <br />
<br />
Note that the "(at least)" bit implies there can be more parts to a missile than just the rocket motor and the warhead, this is primarily intended to capture the important class of "cruise missiles" that fly a long part of their trajectory powered by a "sustainer" part and not by the rocket part.<br />
<br />
== Resources ==<br />
[https://www.iiss.org/blogs/research-paper/2022/04/missile-identification-and-assessment This] looks like a good introduction to missiles.<br />
<br />
The fabled 2003 [https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.76.S1 APS ballistic missile defence report], to this day (mid 2022) the most comprehensive public report on all things missile defence (most newer stuff simply references this for any quantitative results, and then waves their hands about and declare this a "novel contribution")<br />
<br />
The [https://csps.aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Wilson-Dunham_MissileThreat_20200826_0.pdf Wilson and Dunham] paper suggesting a new way to classify missiles.<br />
<br />
== Todo ==<br />
this page should be a short summary of missiles as it relates to arms control, with a short history (not a full history, that will be on the history page) of Von Braun and the V2, arms control treaties concerning missiles, then what systems are actively deployed/by whom, finally the future of missiles and how they relate to arms control<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<br />
[[Category:Missiles]]</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Missile&diff=2465Missile2022-11-17T11:55:17Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>The word missile has a quite general meaning, but here it is to be understood as short for "missile systems" unless clearly indicated by the context. The definition of "missile system" used follow Wilson and Dunham 2020:<ref>https://csps.aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Wilson-Dunham_MissileThreat_20200826_0.pdf</ref><br />
<br />
* A missile system consists of a rocket and at least a weaponized payload<br />
<br />
The rocket is commonly called a "booster", while the weaponised payload is sometimes said to carry "munitions".<br />
<br />
== Resources ==<br />
[https://www.iiss.org/blogs/research-paper/2022/04/missile-identification-and-assessment This] looks like a good introduction to missiles.<br />
<br />
The fabled 2003 [https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.76.S1 APS ballistic missile defence report], to this day (mid 2022) the most comprehensive public report on all things missile defence (most newer stuff simply references this for any quantitative results, and then waves their hands about and declare this a "novel contribution")<br />
<br />
The [https://csps.aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Wilson-Dunham_MissileThreat_20200826_0.pdf Wilson and Dunham] paper suggesting a new way to classify missiles.<br />
<br />
== Todo ==<br />
this page should be a short summary of missiles as it relates to arms control, with a short history (not a full history, that will be on the history page) of Von Braun and the V2, arms control treaties concerning missiles, then what systems are actively deployed/by whom, finally the future of missiles and how they relate to arms control<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<br />
[[Category:Missiles]]</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Missile&diff=2464Missile2022-11-17T11:53:06Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>The word missile has a quite general meaning, but here it is to be understood as short for "missile systems" unless clearly indicated by the context. The definition of "missile system" used follow Wilson and Dunham 2020<ref>https://csps.aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Wilson-Dunham_MissileThreat_20200826_0.pdf</ref><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
A missile system is a rocket (booster) plus a weaponized (munitions-carrying) payload<br />
== Resources ==<br />
[https://www.iiss.org/blogs/research-paper/2022/04/missile-identification-and-assessment This] looks like a good introduction to missiles.<br />
<br />
The fabled 2003 [https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.76.S1 APS ballistic missile defence report], to this day (mid 2022) the most comprehensive public report on all things missile defence (most newer stuff simply references this for any quantitative results, and then waves their hands about and declare this a "novel contribution")<br />
<br />
The [https://csps.aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Wilson-Dunham_MissileThreat_20200826_0.pdf Wilson and Dunham] paper suggesting a new way to classify missiles.<br />
<br />
== Todo ==<br />
this page should be a short summary of missiles as it relates to arms control, with a short history (not a full history, that will be on the history page) of Von Braun and the V2, arms control treaties concerning missiles, then what systems are actively deployed/by whom, finally the future of missiles and how they relate to arms control<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<br />
[[Category:Missiles]]</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Missile&diff=2463Missile2022-11-17T11:48:21Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>A missile system is a rocket (booster) plus a weaponized (munitions-carrying) payload<ref>https://csps.aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Wilson-Dunham_MissileThreat_20200826_0.pdf</ref><br />
<br />
== Resources ==<br />
[https://www.iiss.org/blogs/research-paper/2022/04/missile-identification-and-assessment This] looks like a good introduction to missiles.<br />
<br />
The fabled 2003 [https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.76.S1 APS ballistic missile defence report], to this day (mid 2022) the most comprehensive public report on all things missile defence (most newer stuff simply references this for any quantitative results, and then waves their hands about and declare this a "novel contribution")<br />
<br />
== Todo ==<br />
this page should be a short summary of missiles as it relates to arms control, with a short history (not a full history, that will be on the history page) of Von Braun and the V2, arms control treaties concerning missiles, then what systems are actively deployed/by whom, finally the future of missiles and how they relate to arms control<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<br />
[[Category:Missiles]]</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Sarmat&diff=2460Sarmat2022-11-16T22:22:22Z<p>Tobychev: Created page with "More info here: https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/rs-28-sarmat/"</p>
<hr />
<div>More info here: https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/rs-28-sarmat/</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Russia&diff=2459Russia2022-11-16T22:22:04Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>== Missile Program ==<br />
Russia has historically developed very many missile, so, *so* many.<br />
<br />
=== Yuzhny Island ===<br />
{{Main|Novaya Zemlya}}<br />
<br />
=== Missiles under development ===<br />
{{Main|Sarmat}}<br />
The RS-28 Sarmat is a liquid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile currently under development by Russia.<ref>https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/rs-28-sarmat/</ref><br />
<br />
<br />
== Nuclear Program ==<br />
Link to individual things or maybe individual sites here.<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<references /><br />
[[Category:Russia]]</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Russia&diff=2458Russia2022-11-16T22:10:47Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>== Missile Program ==<br />
<br />
=== Yuzhny Island ===<br />
{{Main|Novaya Zemlya}}<br />
<br />
=== missile here ===<br />
{{Main|KN-22}}<br />
<br />
Add a bunch of stuff based on the source below, a quick overview<br />
<br />
https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/hwasong-15-kn-22/<br />
<br />
<br />
Link to other individual missiles here<br />
<br />
[Kalibr|https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/ss-n-27-sizzler/]<br />
<br />
== Nuclear Program ==<br />
Link to individual things or maybe individual sites here.<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<references /><br />
[[Category:Russia]]</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Russia&diff=2457Russia2022-11-16T22:04:37Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>== Missile Program ==<br />
<br />
=== Yuzhny Island ===<br />
{{Main|Novaya Zemlya}}<br />
<br />
=== missile here ===<br />
{{Main|KN-22}}<br />
<br />
Add a bunch of stuff based on the source below, a quick overview<br />
<br />
https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/hwasong-15-kn-22/<br />
<br />
<br />
Link to other individual missiles here<br />
<br />
[[https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/ss-n-27-sizzler/|Kalibr]]<br />
<br />
== Nuclear Program ==<br />
Link to individual things or maybe individual sites here.<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<references /><br />
[[Category:Russia]]</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Nov_15_Przewodow_explosion&diff=2456Nov 15 Przewodow explosion2022-11-16T21:39:03Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>This case study is intended as a example of how there is great confusion in the direct aftermath of an event, and that the "direct aftermath" in the OSINT world doesn't start until things show up online<br />
<br />
== Analysis ==<br />
Initially, the explosion was interpreted as an attack on Poland by Russia, and initial steps were taken to meet and discuss a potential invocation of [[NATO Article 4]].<ref>https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1592808775991246848?s=20&t=7xDcm3G_1-RoqLXCQEnvkg</ref> While these steps were withdrawn, it's a good reminder that these kinds of interactions can easily spiral out of control.<br />
<br />
== Timeline ==<br />
<br />
=== November 15 ===<br />
* At 15:40 local time (CET, GMT+1) an explosion was reported to national authorities in Przewodow<ref>https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1592654792144584705</ref><br />
* Seemingly at 17:54 local time, public radio publishes its first news about the explosion<ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/wybuch-ciagnika-w-miejscowosci-przewodow-nie-zyja-dwie-osoby/</ref>, reporting two dead. Photos from the site of the explosions taken at 16:14 are also found at this site, possible already in the first update.<br />
* At 18:28 local time, a journalist at the national commercial radio station Radio Zet tweeted<ref>https://twitter.com/MariuszGierszew/status/1592570215443070976</ref> the story that two missiles fell in Przewodow<br />
* At 18:28 local time, Warsawa tabloid daily publishes a story<ref>https://www.fakt.pl/polityka/premier-zwoluje-komitet-rady-ministrow-do-spraw-bezpieczenstwa-narodowego/3x8peeg?utm_source=www.fakt.pl_viasg_fakt&utm_medium=referal&utm_campaign=leo_automatic&srcc=ucs&utm_v=2#slide-1</ref> that the national crisis group will convene, and vaguely references information that the meeting is related to the explosion in Przewodow. The story also states AP has reported that Russian missiles might have hit Poland.<br />
* At 18:34 local time, public radio publishes<ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/premier-zwolal-w-trybie-pilnym-komitet-rady-ministrow-do-spraw-bezpieczenstwa-narodowego-i-spraw-obronnych/</ref> a story that the national crisis group will convene, but no concrete cause is reported<br />
* Seemingly at 18:42 local time, public radio publishes<ref>https://archive.ph/vesrJ</ref> that the governor went to Przewodow.<br />
* At 18:54 local time, a Radio Zet station published online<ref>http://archive.today/2022.11.15-182649/https://wiadomosci.radiozet.pl/Polska/rakiety-spadly-na-polske-sa-ofiary-smiertelne</ref> a report from the site of the explosion. It was mostly second hand accounts, sourcing pictures from an online site covering actions by the fire fighers<ref>https://remiza.com.pl/wybuch-w-przewodowie/</ref> and a central quote from public radio <ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/wybuch-ciagnika-w-miejscowosci-przewodow-nie-zyja-dwie-osoby/</ref>. It also referenced "unofficial sources" stating that the explosion was caused by two stray missiles. It did not state the time of the explosion.<br />
* At 19:04 local time, (norwegian?) twitter account Faytuks News highlights<ref>https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1592580008505401344</ref> the Radio Zet story on his feed. At 19:13 local time the tweet is posted on the ACW slack<br />
* At 19:43 local time, American journalist Jim La Porta references<ref>http://archive.today/2022.11.15-201848/https://twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1592589217623789568</ref> "a senior U.S. intelligence official" stating that there were two missiles and that they were Russian. It gets posted on the ACW slack at 19:44<br />
* At 20:11 local time, American journalist Laura Kelly reports<ref>https://twitter.com/HelloLauraKelly/status/1592596264478470145</ref> that the Pentagon cannot corroborate that two Russian missiles struck Przewodow. Journalist Idrees Ali reports the same thing at the same time, which is posted on the ACW slack at 20:20<br />
<br />
=== November 16 ===<br />
<br />
===== Timeline for "Russian made" =====<br />
* At 00:04 local time (on the 16th) American journalist Phil Stewart reports that Polish MFA has stated that "Russian produced rocket fell on [...] Przewodow" at the time the explosion happened. It was posted on the ACW slack at 00:10 local time (on the 16th)<br />
* At 00:15 local time (on the 16th) public radio published<ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/msz-na-terenie-przewodowa-spadl-spadl-pocisk-produkcji-rosyjskiej-ambasador-rosji-wezwany-do-msz/</ref> a report that the Polish MFA had issued a press release<ref>https://www.gov.pl/web/dyplomacja/komunikat-w-zwiazku-z-wezwaniem-ambasadora-federacji-rosyjskiej-do-msz</ref> where the MFA described the explosion in Przewodow as being a "Russian made missile", and stated they had called the Russian ambassador to give an explanation.<br />
<br />
===== Debbie downer timeline =====<br />
* At 2:31 local time (on the 16th) Reuters posted<ref>https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1592691774908252161</ref> a message on twitter stating that "No concrete evidence on who fired missile, Poland's Duda says". It was posted on the ACW slack at 2:41 local time (on the 16th).<br />
* At around 2:50 local time (on the 16th) US president Biden has a short press conference where he says it is unlikely the missiles were fired from Russia. A youtube clip<ref>https://youtu.be/UydGg9ze1kA</ref> of the event is posted on the ACW slack at 3:04 local time (on the 16th) <br />
* At 6:04 local time (on the 16th) american journalist Jon Gambrell reported<ref>https://twitter.com/jongambrellap/status/1592745324199776257</ref> on twitter that US government officials were saying it was a Ukrainian missile. This gets posted to the slack at 6:04 local time (on the 16th).<br />
<br />
===== Timeline for Zelensky comments =====<br />
<br />
* Around 19:12 local time, Zelensky stated "I have no doubt that it was not our missile or our missile strike. We have to participate in the investigation."<ref>https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1592928556635471873</ref> However, both Ukraine and the US agree that ultimate responsibility for the explosion falls on Russia.<ref>https://twitter.com/vmsalama/status/1592932638230446081?s=20&t=EJHZ88AppH7WrxF25u8TAw</ref><br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<references /><br />
[[Category:Ukraine]]<br />
[[Category:Russo-Ukrainian War]]<br />
[[Category:Case Studies]]</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Nov_15_Przewodow_explosion&diff=2455Nov 15 Przewodow explosion2022-11-16T21:37:47Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>This case study is intended as a example of how there is great confusion in the direct aftermath of an event, and that the "direct aftermath" in the OSINT world doesn't start until things show up online<br />
<br />
== Analysis ==<br />
Initially, the explosion was interpreted as an attack on Poland by Russia, and initial steps were taken to meet and discuss a potential invocation of [[NATO Article 4]].<ref>https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1592808775991246848?s=20&t=7xDcm3G_1-RoqLXCQEnvkg</ref> While these steps were withdrawn, it's a good reminder that these kinds of interactions can easily spiral out of control.<br />
<br />
== Timeline ==<br />
<br />
=== November 15 ===<br />
* At 15:40 local time (CET, GMT+1) an explosion was reported to national authorities in Przewodow<ref>https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1592654792144584705</ref><br />
* Seemingly at 17:54 local time, public radio publishes its first news about the explosion<ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/wybuch-ciagnika-w-miejscowosci-przewodow-nie-zyja-dwie-osoby/</ref>, reporting two dead. Photos from the site of the explosions taken at 16:14 are also found at this site, possible already in the first update.<br />
* At 18:28 local time, a journalist at the national commercial radio station Radio Zet tweeted<ref>https://twitter.com/MariuszGierszew/status/1592570215443070976</ref> the story that two missiles fell in Przewodow<br />
* At 18:28 local time, Warsawa tabloid daily publishes a story<ref>https://www.fakt.pl/polityka/premier-zwoluje-komitet-rady-ministrow-do-spraw-bezpieczenstwa-narodowego/3x8peeg?utm_source=www.fakt.pl_viasg_fakt&utm_medium=referal&utm_campaign=leo_automatic&srcc=ucs&utm_v=2#slide-1</ref> that the national crisis group will convene, and vaguely references information that the meeting is related to the explosion in Przewodow. The story also states AP has reported that Russian missiles might have hit Poland.<br />
* At 18:34 local time, public radio publishes<ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/premier-zwolal-w-trybie-pilnym-komitet-rady-ministrow-do-spraw-bezpieczenstwa-narodowego-i-spraw-obronnych/</ref> a story that the national crisis group will convene, but no concrete cause is reported<br />
* Seemingly at 18:42 local time, public radio publishes<ref>https://archive.ph/vesrJ</ref> that the governor went to Przewodow.<br />
* At 18:54 local time, a Radio Zet station published online<ref>http://archive.today/2022.11.15-182649/https://wiadomosci.radiozet.pl/Polska/rakiety-spadly-na-polske-sa-ofiary-smiertelne</ref> a report from the site of the explosion. It was mostly second hand accounts, sourcing pictures from an online site covering actions by the fire fighers<ref>https://remiza.com.pl/wybuch-w-przewodowie/</ref> and a central quote from public radio <ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/wybuch-ciagnika-w-miejscowosci-przewodow-nie-zyja-dwie-osoby/</ref>. It also referenced "unofficial sources" stating that the explosion was caused by two stray missiles. It did not state the time of the explosion.<br />
* At 19:04 local time, (norwegian?) twitter account Faytuks News highlights<ref>https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1592580008505401344</ref> the Radio Zet story on his feed. At 19:13 local time the tweet is posted on the ACW slack<br />
* At 19:43 local time, American journalist Jim La Porta references<ref>http://archive.today/2022.11.15-201848/https://twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1592589217623789568</ref> "a senior U.S. intelligence official" stating that there were two missiles and that they were Russian. It gets posted on the ACW slack at 19:44<br />
* At 20:11 local time, American journalist Laura Kelly reports<ref>https://twitter.com/HelloLauraKelly/status/1592596264478470145</ref> that the Pentagon cannot corroborate that two Russian missiles struck Przewodow. Journalist Idrees Ali reports the same thing at the same time, which is posted on the ACW slack at 20:20<br />
<br />
By this point there is a speculation bonanza on twitter and on the slack, but then spoils things slightly around 3:00 local time <br />
<br />
=== November 16 ===<br />
<br />
===== Timeline for "Russian made" =====<br />
* At 00:04 local time (on the 16th) American journalist Phil Stewart reports that Polish MFA has stated that "Russian produced rocket fell on [...] Przewodow" at the time the explosion happened. It was posted on the ACW slack at 00:10 local time (on the 16th)<br />
* At 00:15 local time (on the 16th) public radio published<ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/msz-na-terenie-przewodowa-spadl-spadl-pocisk-produkcji-rosyjskiej-ambasador-rosji-wezwany-do-msz/</ref> a report that the Polish MFA had issued a press release<ref>https://www.gov.pl/web/dyplomacja/komunikat-w-zwiazku-z-wezwaniem-ambasadora-federacji-rosyjskiej-do-msz</ref> where the MFA described the explosion in Przewodow as being a "Russian made missile", and stated they had called the Russian ambassador to give an explanation.<br />
<br />
===== Debbie downer timeline =====<br />
* At 2:31 local time (on the 16th) Reuters posted<ref>https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1592691774908252161</ref> a message on twitter stating that "No concrete evidence on who fired missile, Poland's Duda says". It was posted on the ACW slack at 2:41 local time (on the 16th).<br />
* At around 2:50 local time (on the 16th) US president Biden has a short press conference where he says it is unlikely the missiles were fired from Russia. A youtube clip<ref>https://youtu.be/UydGg9ze1kA</ref> of the event is posted on the ACW slack at 3:04 local time (on the 16th) <br />
* At 6:04 local time (on the 16th) american journalist Jon Gambrell reported<ref>https://twitter.com/jongambrellap/status/1592745324199776257</ref> on twitter that US government officials were saying it was a Ukrainian missile. This gets posted to the slack at 6:04 local time.<br />
<br />
===== Timeline for Zelensky comments =====<br />
<br />
* Around 19:12 local time, Zelensky stated "I have no doubt that it was not our missile or our missile strike. We have to participate in the investigation."<ref>https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1592928556635471873</ref> However, both Ukraine and the US agree that ultimate responsibility for the explosion falls on Russia.<ref>https://twitter.com/vmsalama/status/1592932638230446081?s=20&t=EJHZ88AppH7WrxF25u8TAw</ref><br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<references /><br />
[[Category:Ukraine]]<br />
[[Category:Russo-Ukrainian War]]<br />
[[Category:Case Studies]]</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Nov_15_Przewodow_explosion&diff=2447Nov 15 Przewodow explosion2022-11-16T21:13:12Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>This case study is intended as a example of how there is great confusion in the direct aftermath of an event, and that the "direct aftermath" in the OSINT world doesn't start until things show up online<br />
<br />
== Timeline ==<br />
* At 15:40 local time (CET, GMT+1) an explosion was reported to national authorities in Przewodow<ref>https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1592654792144584705</ref><br />
* Seemingly at 17:54 local time, public radio publishes its first news about the explosion<ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/wybuch-ciagnika-w-miejscowosci-przewodow-nie-zyja-dwie-osoby/</ref>, reporting two dead. Photos from the site of the explosions taken at 16:14 are also found at this site, possible already in the first update.<br />
* At 18:28 local time, a journalist at the national commercial radio station Radio Zet tweeted<ref>https://twitter.com/MariuszGierszew/status/1592570215443070976</ref> the story that two missiles fell in Przewodow<br />
* At 18:28 local time, Warsawa tabloid daily publishes a story<ref>https://www.fakt.pl/polityka/premier-zwoluje-komitet-rady-ministrow-do-spraw-bezpieczenstwa-narodowego/3x8peeg?utm_source=www.fakt.pl_viasg_fakt&utm_medium=referal&utm_campaign=leo_automatic&srcc=ucs&utm_v=2#slide-1</ref> that the national crisis group will convene, and vaguely references information that the meeting is related to the explosion in Przewodow. The story also states AP has reported that Russian missiles might have hit Poland.<br />
* At 18:34 local time, public radio publishes<ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/premier-zwolal-w-trybie-pilnym-komitet-rady-ministrow-do-spraw-bezpieczenstwa-narodowego-i-spraw-obronnych/</ref> a story that the national crisis group will convene, but no concrete cause is reported<br />
* Seemingly at 18:42 local time, public radio publishes<ref>https://archive.ph/vesrJ</ref> that the governor went to Przewodow.<br />
* At 18:54 local time, a Radio Zet station published online<ref>http://archive.today/2022.11.15-182649/https://wiadomosci.radiozet.pl/Polska/rakiety-spadly-na-polske-sa-ofiary-smiertelne</ref> a report from the site of the explosion. It was mostly second hand accounts, sourcing pictures from an online site covering actions by the fire fighers<ref>https://remiza.com.pl/wybuch-w-przewodowie/</ref> and a central quote from public radio <ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/wybuch-ciagnika-w-miejscowosci-przewodow-nie-zyja-dwie-osoby/</ref>. It also referenced "unofficial sources" stating that the explosion was caused by two stray missiles. It did not state the time of the explosion.<br />
* At 19:04 local time, (norwegian?) twitter account Faytuks News highlights<ref>https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1592580008505401344</ref> the Radio Zet story on his feed. At 19:13 local time the tweet is posted on the ACW slack <br />
* At 19:43 local time, American journalist Jim La Porta references<ref>http://archive.today/2022.11.15-201848/https://twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1592589217623789568</ref> "a senior U.S. intelligence official" stating that there were two missiles and that they were Russian. It gets posted on the ACW slack at 19:44<br />
* At 20:11 local time, American journalist Laura Kelly reports<ref>https://twitter.com/HelloLauraKelly/status/1592596264478470145</ref> that the Pentagon cannot corroborate that two Russian missiles struck Przewodow. Journalist Idrees Ali reports the same thing at the same time, which is posted on the ACW slack at 20:20<br />
<br />
By this point there is a speculation bonanza on twitter and on the slack, but then US president Biden spoils things slightly around 3:00 local time saying it is unlikely the missiles were fired from Russia. An at 6:04 local time US government officials are saying it was a Ukrainian missile. This gets posted to the slack at 6:04 local time.<br />
<br />
===== Timeline for "Russian made" =====<br />
* At 00:04 local time (on the 16th) american journalist Phil Stewart reports that Polish MFA has stated that "Russian produced rocket fell on [...] Przewodow" at the time the explosion happened. It was posted on the ACW slack at 00:10 local time (on the 16th)<br />
* At 00:15 local time (on the 16th) public radio published<ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/msz-na-terenie-przewodowa-spadl-spadl-pocisk-produkcji-rosyjskiej-ambasador-rosji-wezwany-do-msz/</ref> a report that the Polish MFA had issued a press release<ref>https://www.gov.pl/web/dyplomacja/komunikat-w-zwiazku-z-wezwaniem-ambasadora-federacji-rosyjskiej-do-msz</ref> where the MFA described the explosion in Przewodow as being a "Russian made missile", and stated they had called the Russian ambassador to give an explanation.<br />
* At 2:31 local time (on the 16th) Reuters posted<ref>https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1592691774908252161</ref> a message on twitter stating that "No concrete evidence on who fired missile, Poland's Duda says". It was posted on the ACW slack at 2:41 local time (on the 16th).<br />
<br />
== References ==</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Nov_15_Przewodow_explosion&diff=2446Nov 15 Przewodow explosion2022-11-16T21:12:42Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>This case study is intended as a example of how there is great confusion in the direct aftermath of an event, and that the "direct aftermath" in the OSINT world doesn't start until things show up online<br />
<br />
== Timeline ==<br />
* At 15:40 local time (CET, GMT+1) an explosion was reported to national authorities in Przewodow<ref>https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1592654792144584705</ref><br />
* Seemingly at 17:54 local time, public radio publishes its first news about the explosion<ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/wybuch-ciagnika-w-miejscowosci-przewodow-nie-zyja-dwie-osoby/</ref>, reporting two dead. Photos from the site of the explosions taken at 16:14 are also found at this site, possible already in the first update.<br />
* At 18:28 local time, a journalist at the national commercial radio station Radio Zet tweeted<ref>https://twitter.com/MariuszGierszew/status/1592570215443070976</ref> the story that two missiles fell in Przewodow<br />
* At 18:28 local time, Warsawa tabloid daily publishes a story<ref>https://www.fakt.pl/polityka/premier-zwoluje-komitet-rady-ministrow-do-spraw-bezpieczenstwa-narodowego/3x8peeg?utm_source=www.fakt.pl_viasg_fakt&utm_medium=referal&utm_campaign=leo_automatic&srcc=ucs&utm_v=2#slide-1</ref> that the national crisis group will convene, and vaguely references information that the meeting is related to the explosion in Przewodow. The story also states AP has reported that Russian missiles might have hit Poland.<br />
* At 18:34 local time, public radio publishes<ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/premier-zwolal-w-trybie-pilnym-komitet-rady-ministrow-do-spraw-bezpieczenstwa-narodowego-i-spraw-obronnych/</ref> a story that the national crisis group will convene, but no concrete cause is reported<br />
* Seemingly at 18:42 local time, public radio publishes<ref>https://archive.ph/vesrJ</ref> that the governor went to Przewodow.<br />
* At 18:54 local time, a Radio Zet station published online<ref>http://archive.today/2022.11.15-182649/https://wiadomosci.radiozet.pl/Polska/rakiety-spadly-na-polske-sa-ofiary-smiertelne</ref> a report from the site of the explosion. It was mostly second hand accounts, sourcing pictures from an online site covering actions by the fire fighers<ref>https://remiza.com.pl/wybuch-w-przewodowie/</ref> and a central quote from public radio <ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/wybuch-ciagnika-w-miejscowosci-przewodow-nie-zyja-dwie-osoby/</ref>. It also referenced "unofficial sources" stating that the explosion was caused by two stray missiles. It did not state the time of the explosion.<br />
* At 19:04 local time, (norwegian?) twitter account Faytuks News highlights<ref>https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1592580008505401344</ref> the Radio Zet story on his feed. At 19:13 local time the tweet is posted on the ACW slack <br />
* At 19:43 local time, American journalist Jim La Porta references<ref>http://archive.today/2022.11.15-201848/https://twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1592589217623789568</ref> "a senior U.S. intelligence official" stating that there were two missiles and that they were Russian. It gets posted on the ACW slack at 19:44<br />
* At 20:11 local time, American journalist Laura Kelly reports<ref>https://twitter.com/HelloLauraKelly/status/1592596264478470145</ref> that the Pentagon cannot corroborate that two Russian missiles struck Przewodow. Journalist Idrees Ali reports the same thing at the same time, which is posted on the ACW slack at 20:20<br />
<br />
By this point there is a speculation bonanza on twitter and on the slack, but then US president Biden spoils things slightly around 3:00 local time saying it is unlikely the missiles were fired from Russia. An at 6:04 local time US government officials are saying it was a Ukrainian missile. This gets posted to the slack at 6:04 local time.<br />
<br />
=== Timeline for "Russian made" ===<br />
* At 00:04 local time (on the 16th) american journalist Phil Stewart reports that Polish MFA has stated that "Russian produced rocket fell on [...] Przewodow" at the time the explosion happened. It was posted on the ACW slack at 00:10 local time (on the 16th)<br />
* At 00:15 local time (on the 16th) public radio published<ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/msz-na-terenie-przewodowa-spadl-spadl-pocisk-produkcji-rosyjskiej-ambasador-rosji-wezwany-do-msz/</ref> a report that the Polish MFA had issued a press release<ref>https://www.gov.pl/web/dyplomacja/komunikat-w-zwiazku-z-wezwaniem-ambasadora-federacji-rosyjskiej-do-msz</ref> where the MFA described the explosion in Przewodow as being a "Russian made missile", and stated they had called the Russian ambassador to give an explanation.<br />
* At 2:31 local time (on the 16th) Reuters posted<ref>https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1592691774908252161</ref> a message on twitter stating that "No concrete evidence on who fired missile, Poland's Duda says". It was posted on the ACW slack at 2:41 local time (on the 16th).<br />
<br />
== References ==</div>Tobychevhttps://wonkpedia.org/mediawiki/index.php?title=Nov_15_Przewodow_explosion&diff=2445Nov 15 Przewodow explosion2022-11-16T21:11:33Z<p>Tobychev: </p>
<hr />
<div>This case study is intended as a example of how there is great confusion in the direct aftermath of an event, and that the "direct aftermath" in the OSINT world doesn't start until things show up online<br />
<br />
== Timeline ==<br />
* At 15:40 local time (CET, GMT+1) an explosion was reported to national authorities in Przewodow<ref>https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1592654792144584705</ref><br />
* Seemingly at 17:54 local time, public radio publishes its first news about the explosion<ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/wybuch-ciagnika-w-miejscowosci-przewodow-nie-zyja-dwie-osoby/</ref>, reporting two dead. Photos from the site of the explosions taken at 16:14 are also found at this site, possible already in the first update.<br />
* At 18:28 local time, a journalist at the national commercial radio station Radio Zet tweeted<ref>https://twitter.com/MariuszGierszew/status/1592570215443070976</ref> the story that two missiles fell in Przewodow<br />
* At 18:28 local time, Warsawa tabloid daily publishes a story<ref>https://www.fakt.pl/polityka/premier-zwoluje-komitet-rady-ministrow-do-spraw-bezpieczenstwa-narodowego/3x8peeg?utm_source=www.fakt.pl_viasg_fakt&utm_medium=referal&utm_campaign=leo_automatic&srcc=ucs&utm_v=2#slide-1</ref> that the national crisis group will convene, and vaguely references information that the meeting is related to the explosion in Przewodow. The story also states AP has reported that Russian missiles might have hit Poland.<br />
* At 18:34 local time, public radio publishes<ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/premier-zwolal-w-trybie-pilnym-komitet-rady-ministrow-do-spraw-bezpieczenstwa-narodowego-i-spraw-obronnych/</ref> a story that the national crisis group will convene, but no concrete cause is reported<br />
* Seemingly at 18:42 local time, public radio publishes<ref>https://archive.ph/vesrJ</ref> that the governor went to Przewodow.<br />
* At 18:54 local time, a Radio Zet station published online<ref>http://archive.today/2022.11.15-182649/https://wiadomosci.radiozet.pl/Polska/rakiety-spadly-na-polske-sa-ofiary-smiertelne</ref> a report from the site of the explosion. It was mostly second hand accounts, sourcing pictures from an online site covering actions by the fire fighers<ref>https://remiza.com.pl/wybuch-w-przewodowie/</ref> and a central quote from public radio <ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/wybuch-ciagnika-w-miejscowosci-przewodow-nie-zyja-dwie-osoby/</ref>. It also referenced "unofficial sources" stating that the explosion was caused by two stray missiles. It did not state the time of the explosion.<br />
* At 19:04 local time, (norwegian?) twitter account Faytuks News highlights<ref>https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1592580008505401344</ref> the Radio Zet story on his feed. At 19:13 local time the tweet is posted on the ACW slack <br />
* At 19:43 local time, American journalist Jim La Porta references<ref>http://archive.today/2022.11.15-201848/https://twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1592589217623789568</ref> "a senior U.S. intelligence official" stating that there were two missiles and that they were Russian. It gets posted on the ACW slack at 19:44<br />
* At 20:11 local time, American journalist Laura Kelly reports<ref>https://twitter.com/HelloLauraKelly/status/1592596264478470145</ref> that the Pentagon cannot corroborate that two Russian missiles struck Przewodow. Journalist Idrees Ali reports the same thing at the same time, which is posted on the ACW slack at 20:20<br />
<br />
By this point there is a speculation bonanza on twitter and on the slack, but then US president Biden spoils things slightly around 3:00 local time saying it is unlikely the missiles were fired from Russia. An at 6:04 local time US government officials are saying it was a Ukrainian missile. This gets posted to the slack at 6:04 local time.<br />
<br />
* At 00:04 local time (on the 16th) american journalist Phil Stewart reports that Polish MFA has stated that "Russian produced rocket fell on [...] Przewodow" at the time the explosion happened. It was posted on the ACW slack at 00:10 local time (on the 16th)<br />
* At 00:15 local time (on the 16th) public radio published<ref>https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/msz-na-terenie-przewodowa-spadl-spadl-pocisk-produkcji-rosyjskiej-ambasador-rosji-wezwany-do-msz/</ref> a report that the Polish MFA had issued a press release<ref>https://www.gov.pl/web/dyplomacja/komunikat-w-zwiazku-z-wezwaniem-ambasadora-federacji-rosyjskiej-do-msz</ref> where the MFA described the explosion in Przewodow as being a "Russian made missile", and stated they had called the Russian ambassador to give an explanation.<br />
* At 2:31 local time (on the 16th) Reuters posted<ref>https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1592691774908252161</ref> a message on twitter stating that "No concrete evidence on who fired missile, Poland's Duda says". It was posted on the ACW slack at 2:41 local time (on the 16th).<br />
<br />
== References ==</div>Tobychev